So, the upward trend from the 12 month measure is sort of a false signal, but whether it goes up, down, or sideways from here is still to be seen. I continue to watch the flattening yield curve, but I admit that this show has been playing for longer than I had expected it to.
Friday, July 13, 2018
June 2018 CPI Inflation
So, the upward trend from the 12 month measure is sort of a false signal, but whether it goes up, down, or sideways from here is still to be seen. I continue to watch the flattening yield curve, but I admit that this show has been playing for longer than I had expected it to.
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RE: "a bit of a reversal in shelter vs. non-shelter inflation rates this month"
ReplyDeleterents and homeowners equivalent were at +0.3%, pretty much as usual...shelter was only up 0.2% because of a 4.1% decrease in prices for "lodging away from home at hotels and motels"
Interesting. Thanks for the heads up.
Deletei did read that total shelter figure wrong, btw; it was +0.1%, as you implied...i'd read the wrong far right number on a wide spread sheet....
Deletewhile homeowners equivalent is a third of shelter and rent is another fifth, they include a lot of other homeowner's costs in that shelter component, such as water and sewer bills, landscaping and trash collection, repairs & maintenance, homeowner's insurance, and even dorm rooms ex board at colleges...it's rare though when one of those is enough of an outlier to seriously impact the final shelter number...
Yeah, I think housing costs are still a driving force in the CPI. I see the rents softening in closed access cities, but my guess is supply is still constrained nationally, in a growing economy. As you know, housing starts are feeble.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the economy has settled into slow growth stasis. The Fed will probably budge rates up.