About the Author

My name is Kevin Erdmann.  This blog broadly covers the topics of economics, finance and speculation.  I have an MS in Finance from the University of Arizona.  I am currently writing and supporting books about the housing bubble and the financial crisis which are being published through the Mercatus Center.

In investing and speculating, if someone earns excess returns, the question always remains, (1) did they develop profitable positions through deep research and novel conceptual insights or (2) were they fooled by randomness into thinking they have novel conceptual insights.

One possible explanation for a non-random outcome is that in addition to financial risk, there are also many other forms of risk, including regulatory and reputational risk.  In some unusual contexts, it is possible that reputational risks become so powerful that the required rate of return on a position can exceed the typical levels by an order of magnitude.  These positions tend to have a high level of expected and experienced variance in returns.  But, the expected present value can be enormous for a skilled investor with no agency issues and no reputation to risk.  In short, putting yourself in a position where you might be roundly embarrassed by your public positions can be very profitable.

I hope that enough of you choose to engage with my blog that we can develop a conversation about ideas and investments.  But, you should note that my vocation is to commit to ideas that may seem horribly wrong in foresight.  I intend that few of them will be horribly wrong in hindsight, but inevitably some will be.  I suppose that taking positions which are reputationally risky isn't the best way to build a readership.  If you are reading, it probably means you hold a generous amount of intellectual forgiveness, which I appreciate.  If you comment, I will try to return the favor.

Normally, I would expect the sort of analysis I describe here to be limited to small, illiquid securities.  However, I have been led to create an entire new framework for thinking about the housing bubble and the financial crisis.  And, it may be that I was the only person willing to say something so stupid as "There weren't enough houses in 2005."  And, it turns out that this may seem horribly wrong in foresight, but may be correct in hindsight.  Or, maybe it's just horribly wrong.  In either case, it has become the focus of the blog.

24 comments:

  1. I have been suffering from (HERPES) disease for the last four years and had constant pain, especially in my knees. During the first year, I had faith in God that I would be healed someday.This disease started to circulate all over my body and I have been taking treatment from my doctor, a few weeks ago I came on search on the internet if I could get any information concerning the prevention of this disease, on my search I saw a testimony of someone who has been healed from (Hepatitis B and Cancer) by this Man Dr. Silver and she also gave the email address of this man and advise we should contact him for any sickness that he would be of help, so I wrote to Dr. Silver telling him about my (HERPES Virus) he told me not to worry that I was going to be cured!! hmm i never believed it,, well after all the procedures and remedy given to me by this man few weeks later I started experiencing changes all over me as the Dr. assured me that I have cured, after some time i went to my doctor to confirmed if I have been finally healed behold it was TRUE, So friends my advice is if you have such sickness or any other at all you can email Dr. Silver (drsilverhealingtemple@gmail.com) sir I am indeed grateful for the help I will forever recommend you to my friends!!! with your lovely Email Address ( drsilverhealingtemple@gmail.com or whatsapp him on +2348123877102

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    Replies
    1. I'm 61 years old. I contracted HPV in 2011' I has be taking lot treatment for it and embarrassed some months ago the wart stated coming out seriously, I used lot recommendation because there was lot warts around my anus and was so . but today I'm totally happy I got the virus eliminated by using natural treatment from Dr voodoo herbal center after his treatment I got cured. all the warts went away' seriously believed Dr. voodoo he have the cure for human papillomavirus because he has eliminated hpv been in my body since 2011, Dr. voodoo make it possible for me. Here is Dr. voodoo email: voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com or WhatsApp him via +2348140120719 he is welled capable of curing terrible diseases.

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    2. It is quite alarming how many number of people have fallen for investments scams. I put my life savings in a crypto investment scheme, to my disbelief i got paid the first month so i believed i was safe , this ain't a scam but at the end of the second month, getting my money out became a problem, they keep requesting me to pay more money to get my money out, after paying 6000 twice i realized it was a scam. I contacted my childhood friend because i remember he was into blockchain and hacking, i explained everything to him, he asked me some information and i gave it to him. 9 hours later, i got inflows of transactions inside my wallet. I was so revived, i thought i had lost everything Crypto recovery is possible you just need to trust the right person. YOu can reach out to my friend via [joehackexpert@gmail].com. Tell him from Alfred or fefe (that's what he calls me).

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  2. I'm 61 years old. I contracted hpv in 2011' I has be taking lot treatment for it and embarrassed some months ago the wart stated coming out seriously, I used lot recommendation because there was lot warts around my anus and was so . but today I'm totally happy I got the virus eliminated by using natural treatment from Dr voodoo herbal center after his treatment I got cured. all the warts went away' seriously believed Dr. voodoo he have the cure for human papillomavirus because he has eliminated hpv been in my body since 2011, Dr. voodoo make it possible for me. Here is Dr. voodoo email: voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com or WhatsApp him via +2348140120719 he is welled capable of curing terrible diseases.

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  4. The doctors said Herpes virus do not have medical cure because the virus is capable of hiding within the human cells, it remains protected from your immune system. Herpes isn’t a special virus – your immune system has the tools to fight it back. But because it is able to lay dormant in protected cells, your immune system is unable to remove it from your body,But with strong reactive herbal medication is capable of getting rid of the virus gradually and totally from your body without damaging any of your cells,natural herbs kills the virus totally not just reducing the out break. Get natural herbs cure Email DR. VOODOO at voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com Add Dr voodoo on whatsApp +2348140120719

    ReplyDelete
  5. TESTIMONY ON HOW I GOT CURED TOTALLY FROM HERPES VIRUS BY DR ISHIAKU HERBS

    I want to inform the public how I was cured of herpes Virus by a Doctor called Dr ISHIAKU. I visited different hospitals but they gave me a list of drugs like Famvir, Zovirax, and Valtrex which are very expensive to treat the symptoms and never cured me. I was browsing through the Internet searching for remedies on Herpes and I saw comments of people talking about how Doctor ishiaku cured them. I Was scared because I never believed in the Internet but I was convinced to give him a try because I had no hope of being cured of herpes so I decided to contact him on his email, i searched his email on the net and I saw a lot of people testifying about his goodness. When I contacted him he gave me hope and sent a Herbal medicine to me that I took and it seriously worked for me, am a free person now without any problems, my HERPES result came out negative. You can contact him on his email: (ishiakuherbalcure@yahoo.com)or what - sapp him via (+2348180828544) and get all your problems solved.

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    ReplyDelete
  6. It's a pleasure for me to write this testimony about how I got my Genital Herpes cured a month ago. I have been reading so many comments of some people who were cured from various diseases by Dr. Oliha, but I never believed them. I was hurt and depressed, I was too curious and wanted to try Dr.Oliha, then I contacted him through his email ( oliha.miraclemedicine@gmail.com ) when I contacted him, he assured me 100% that he will heal me, i pleaded with him to help me out. My treatment was a great success, he healed me just as he promised. He sent me his medication and asked me to go for a check up after 14 days of taking the medication. I agreed with him and I took his medication and went for a check up, to my greatest surprise my result was negative after the treatment, i am really happy that I am cured and healthy again. I have waited for 3weeks to be very sure I was completely healed before writing this testimony. I did another blood test one week ago and it was still Herpes negative. So I guess it's time I recommend that anyone going through Herpes HSV-1 or HSV-2, HIV, HPV, Hepatitis B, Diabetes, Cancer should reach him through his Email oliha.miraclemedicine@gmail.com OR add him on whatsapp +2349038382931.
    visit his website on https://olihamiraclemedicine.webs.com/ .

    ReplyDelete
  7. There is a great herbal man called Dr voodoo who can cure Hepatitis B virus and other deadly diseases with the use of natural herbs to cure Hepatitis B virus problems. He is from Africa and he is a great doctor and he can also cure you as well if you are have the problem And other deadly disease and here is email address voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com or Whatsapp +2348140120719 HERPES CURE,CANCER CURE,HIV/AIDS CURE,HPV CURE

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  8. Hello everyone, Now this is to everyone out there with different health challenges, as I know there are still a lot of people suffering from different health issues and are therefore looking for solution. I bring you Good news.There is a man called Dr.Ayomide a herbal practitioner who helped cure me from Genital herpes,this i had suffered from for the past 2years and i have spent so much money trying to survive from it.I got my healing by taking the herbal medicine he sent to me to drink for about 9days.3days after completion of the dosage,I went for a medical checkup and I was tested Genital Herpes NEGATIVE.I'm sharing this so that other people can know of this great healer called Dr Ayomide because I got to know him through a friend he cured from HIV.I was made to understand that he can cure several other deadly diseases and infections.Don't die in ignorance and don't let that illness take your life.Contact Dr Ayomide through his email address=ayomideherbalhome@gmail.com You can also call him or WhatsApp him on:+2348062443909 Thank you Dr. Ayomide. Be kind enough to share as you received.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I had my first outbreak of Herpes virus nearly 2 years ago. Of all the tardiness, the pain and itching were unbearable. I literally freaked out as my general physician said that it had no cure. The outbreaks were not that frequent initially, but every time I fell sick, it would resurface. I had so many sores this year that I was desperate to try anything to get rid of them. Three months ago a friend suggested that I try DR AKHIGBE remedy that's helping people get cured from HSV, COUGHING, HIV&AIDS, GENITAL HERPES, ALS, SNEEZING, HEPATITIS B, CANCER e.t.c. I quickly ordered the product and started using the remedies. I'm so relieved to say that I've not had even one outbreak for a whole month now. Moreover, I'm feeling great from within. I truly endorse this herbal product DR AKHIGBE rendered to me. So if you are suffering from any deadly disease you can also contact this great man on his email Drakhigbeherbalhome5@gmail.com contact his whatsApp +2349021374574.

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  10. Using A natural herbal remedy was what got me tested negative for HSV 2 after being diagnosed for years. I have spent so much funds on medications like acyclovir (Zovirax), Acyclovir (Famvir), and Valacyclovir (Valtrex). But it was all a waste of time and my symptoms got worse. To me It is very bad what Big pharma are doing, why keep making humans suffer greatly just to get profits annually for medications that don't work. I’m glad that herbal remedies are gaining so much awareness and many people are getting off medications and activating their entire body system with natural herbal remedies and they have become holistically healed totally. Quickly visit Dr. Akhigbe herbal home now for help. Email him directly on drakhigbeherbalhome5@gmail.com or Whats app :+2349021374574

    ReplyDelete
  11. When a person gets scammed of their money while investing in a crypto currency platform the only thing, they can think of is how to report the company and get back their money. Most victims of the scam contact their wallet account provider, their bank or the law enforcement, a few end up hiring a lawyer to sue the company but after all these stresses they still can’t get their money back. This mode of investment has made many rich and at the same time made so many broke and desperate. I didn't pay much attention to this form of trading in form of bitcoin until one of my friends showed me how much he already made investing in BTC. With what he showed me, I was convinced and I decided to invest a lot of money in a website I was referred to by my him. I signed up and I was sent a wallet address to make the payment. I purchased $350,0000 worth of BTC and I transferred $300,0000 to their wallet address. Few days later their website was down and we discovered we had been scammed big time. Every effort to get back our BTC failed until a few weeks ago when I was referred to softwarespecialist@usa.com and I was able to get back all my BTC that was Stolen through his services. If you want to recover your cryptocurrency that was stolen or lost, I recommend him, you can search for him on Google. He is very reliable and trustworthy.

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  12. A lot of people believe there is no cure for ALS disease, which is not true. Everyone has to understand that natural treatment is the best among all. My Dad is 100% fine after using Dr Agumba ALS herbal product. I'm so happy that he got healed and I do believe in natural herbs right from the beginning especially when you got it from a good and understanding naturopathic. It's better and more active for getting rid of every disease. Anyone who needs ALS herbal cure, here is Dr Agumba Email dragumbasolutioncenter@gmail.com

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  13. METHODS TO REPEAT CRYPTOCURRENCY FROM A SCAM

    Thank you, Captain Jack Crypto. I'm writing to express how grateful I am that you helped me retrieve my lost Bitcoin. I was horrified to discover that my Bitcoin had been taken, and I had no idea what to do. Still, I'm really happy I found you. Your crew was knowledgeable, efficient, and compassionate. They gave me thorough explanations of the rehabilitation process and answered all of my questions. They also gave me frequent updates on their advancement. I'm happy to let you know that Captain Jack Crypto was able to successfully retrieve my Bitcoin. I sincerely appreciate your assistance. Captain Jack Crypto is a great option for anyone who has lost or had their Bitcoin stolen, in my opinion. Captain Jack Crypto is the greatest since they have a top-notch group of experts who can assist you in getting back on your feet and recovering any lost money. I sincerely thank them and urge anyone in need to use their services. These are their contact details. Captainjackcrypto@europe.com is his email.

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  14. After 7yrs in marriage trying to conceive and fibroid was getting over my life. In the end it's my greatest joy, after the help of Dr Agumba I fell pregnant. I'm recommending everyone out here who is trying to get pregnant no matter the conditions that delay your pregnancy, either physical or spiritual problems holding your womb. you should also contact Dr Agumba there will be a greater testimony for you. > email or whatsapp call... dragumbasolutioncenter@gmail.com +2349032173881 .

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  15. I have be dealing with Hpv for the past 5 years until i got review online about Dr Osbit people testified s how they got cured with his herbal medicine. And i order the treatment, after taking it for 14days i totally got cured with Dr Osbit herbal Home. I'm recommending you diagnosis with Hpv or any health issues should contact him and get cured naturally. You can contact him via email: osbitherbalhome@hotmail.com or WhatsApp: +2348058465905

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    Email: Exnerprohacker@protonmail.com

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  18. After falling victim to a cryptocurrency scam and losing $10,000 worth of bitcoins, I desperately sought a reliable recovery solution. Fortunately, I discovered Wizard Asset Recovery. Despite my initial skepticism, I decided to contact them via email at Wizardassetrecovery[@]gmx.us or via WhatsApp at +1 3157561228.
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  20. Discovering that my hard-earned bitcoin had been stolen was a devastating blow that left me feeling vulnerable and violated. The realization of the theft sent shockwaves through my life, leaving me scrambling to find a solution. This article chronicles my journey of relentless determination and the relentless work that ultimately led to the recovery of my stolen bitcoin. From the initial shock to the triumphant outcome, I will share the steps I took, the professionals I enlisted, and the legal challenges I faced along the way. Through my story, I hope to empower others who may find themselves in a similar situation, offering guidance, insights, and inspiration for reclaiming what is rightfully theirs. It was just an ordinary day, or so I thought, until I logged into my cryptocurrency wallet and was met with a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. My hard-earned bitcoin, the digital gold I had painstakingly accumulated, had vanished into thin air. Panic and disbelief washed over me as I tried to comprehend how someone could have stolen my precious virtual currency. The initial shock soon gave way to a mix of anger, frustration, and helplessness. I felt violated, as if a virtual burglar had broken into my online safe and ransacked it without leaving a trace. How could I have been so careless? Why didn't I take extra precautions? These questions gnawed at me, but dwelling on them wouldn't bring back my bitcoin. I knew I had to take action swiftly to minimize the damage and recover what I could. So I browsed the internet and found various recovery firms but one in particular, CyberPunk Programmers caught my attention and decided to reach out to them through their website cyberpunkers dot org. They were very transparent with the procedures and the more I learned about the techniques employed by hackers, the more I understood the sophistication of their operations. From phishing emails and social engineering to malware and ransomware attacks, these digital sorcerers utilized a wide range of tactics to infiltrate and compromise unsuspecting victims. It was like discovering a secret language only spoken by the cyber underworld. After days of relentless pursuit, our hard work finally paid off. The thieves were tracked down, apprehended, and the stolen bitcoin was recovered. It was a moment of triumph and celebration, knowing that justice had been served and my precious funds were back where they belonged. Please contact CyberPunk Programmers for help via Email: cyberpunk at programmer dot net.

    ReplyDelete
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  22. GEARHEAD ENGINEERS WILL HELP TO SPY ON CHEATING HUSBAND

    I have been married for 7 years and we were happy together until a year ago when my husband started acting distant. He got so occupied with work that he would come home past midnight then off to work early in the morning. What bothered me the most was how he was overprotective with his phone. I got tired of feeling uneasy and during the process. I read an article on how women spy on their partners so I started searching for spywares and hackers. I saw a lot of positive reviews about GearHead Engineers Org and so I went to their website (gearheadengineers for org) and gave them my husbands details. I was more than shocked when GearHead sent me all the details I wanted including old messages and call logs. The thing which I feared the most was true. My partner had been cheating on me. My intuition had been right all along, and I was not losing my mind. Weirdly, it was a relief to finally know that I had been right.

    ReplyDelete