About the Author

My name is Kevin Erdmann.  This blog broadly covers the topics of economics, finance and speculation.  I have an MS in Finance from the University of Arizona.  I am currently writing and supporting books about the housing bubble and the financial crisis which are being published through the Mercatus Center.

In investing and speculating, if someone earns excess returns, the question always remains, (1) did they develop profitable positions through deep research and novel conceptual insights or (2) were they fooled by randomness into thinking they have novel conceptual insights.

One possible explanation for a non-random outcome is that in addition to financial risk, there are also many other forms of risk, including regulatory and reputational risk.  In some unusual contexts, it is possible that reputational risks become so powerful that the required rate of return on a position can exceed the typical levels by an order of magnitude.  These positions tend to have a high level of expected and experienced variance in returns.  But, the expected present value can be enormous for a skilled investor with no agency issues and no reputation to risk.  In short, putting yourself in a position where you might be roundly embarrassed by your public positions can be very profitable.

I hope that enough of you choose to engage with my blog that we can develop a conversation about ideas and investments.  But, you should note that my vocation is to commit to ideas that may seem horribly wrong in foresight.  I intend that few of them will be horribly wrong in hindsight, but inevitably some will be.  I suppose that taking positions which are reputationally risky isn't the best way to build a readership.  If you are reading, it probably means you hold a generous amount of intellectual forgiveness, which I appreciate.  If you comment, I will try to return the favor.

Normally, I would expect the sort of analysis I describe here to be limited to small, illiquid securities.  However, I have been led to create an entire new framework for thinking about the housing bubble and the financial crisis.  And, it may be that I was the only person willing to say something so stupid as "There weren't enough houses in 2005."  And, it turns out that this may seem horribly wrong in foresight, but may be correct in hindsight.  Or, maybe it's just horribly wrong.  In either case, it has become the focus of the blog.

13 comments:

  1. I have been suffering from (HERPES) disease for the last four years and had constant pain, especially in my knees. During the first year, I had faith in God that I would be healed someday.This disease started to circulate all over my body and I have been taking treatment from my doctor, a few weeks ago I came on search on the internet if I could get any information concerning the prevention of this disease, on my search I saw a testimony of someone who has been healed from (Hepatitis B and Cancer) by this Man Dr. Silver and she also gave the email address of this man and advise we should contact him for any sickness that he would be of help, so I wrote to Dr. Silver telling him about my (HERPES Virus) he told me not to worry that I was going to be cured!! hmm i never believed it,, well after all the procedures and remedy given to me by this man few weeks later I started experiencing changes all over me as the Dr. assured me that I have cured, after some time i went to my doctor to confirmed if I have been finally healed behold it was TRUE, So friends my advice is if you have such sickness or any other at all you can email Dr. Silver (drsilverhealingtemple@gmail.com) sir I am indeed grateful for the help I will forever recommend you to my friends!!! with your lovely Email Address ( drsilverhealingtemple@gmail.com or whatsapp him on +2348123877102

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN DR LOJA IS REAL.

      my name is Bemjamin from UK (London) my wife has heard rumors about me and this issues made her filed for divorce and everything went up up and this case and the thought of losing my family now has kept my heart unhappy so i prayed for a solution and a way i can be able to bring back my wife and kids back and prove to her all these things she heard about me and the other lady working in my office are all lies because deep down in my heart i knew i never and will never cheat on my wife. to cut this whole story short my wife sister from the USA heard all the issues in ground and immediately asked me to contact DR LOJA she gave me his contacts details and i did as she said and DR LOJA told me everything will be fine in two days in two days my wife will come home for good again and this was exactly what happened and for this reason i say this man is real and can also help anyone with any of the below problem

      BRINGING BACK LOST LOVER.
      RESTORATION OF BROKEN MARRIAGES / RELATIONSHIPS.
      HEALING OF DISEASES.
      PRAYERS OVERCOME SPIRITUAL ATTACKS OR BAD DREAMS.
      CURE FOR HSV 1 AND HSV 2.
      TOTAL FOR INFECTION STD ETC.
      A WEEK TREATMENT AND CURE FOR HIV IS GAURANTEED.
      PRAYERS FOR LUCKY NUMBERS FOR LOTTERIES WINNING.
      ETC......................
      http://drlojasulutionsplace.godaddysites.com
      email;drlojasolutions@gmail.com
      call/ text/ whatsapp ; +2349159144552

      Delete
    2. I'm 61 years old. I contracted HPV in 2011' I has be taking lot treatment for it and embarrassed some months ago the wart stated coming out seriously, I used lot recommendation because there was lot warts around my anus and was so . but today I'm totally happy I got the virus eliminated by using natural treatment from Dr voodoo herbal center after his treatment I got cured. all the warts went away' seriously believed Dr. voodoo he have the cure for human papillomavirus because he has eliminated hpv been in my body since 2011, Dr. voodoo make it possible for me. Here is Dr. voodoo email: voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com or WhatsApp him via +2348140120719 he is welled capable of curing terrible diseases.

      Delete
  2. I Want To Appreciate Dr OLIHA for his great deeds, I Was Diagnosed With type 2 Herpes Virus Last year, And I Was Looking For Solution To Be Cured Luckily I Saw Testimonies On How Dr OLIHA Cure Herpes Virus I Decided To Contact Dr OLIHA I Contacted Him He Prepared A Herbal Medicine Portion And Sent It To Me, I Started The Herbal Medicine For My Health. He Gave Me Step By Step Instructions On How To Apply It, When I Applied It As Instructed, I Was Cured Of This Deadly Herpes Within 2 weeks, I Am Now Herpes Negative. My Brother And Sister I No That There Are So Many People That Have The Same Herpes Virus Please contact Dr OLIHA To Help You Too, And Help Me To Thank Dr OLIHA For Cure Me, I’m Cured By Dr. OLIHA Herbal Medicine, His Contact Email:{oliha.miraclemedicine@gmail.com} or visit his website is https://olihamiraclemedicine.webs.com/  or  Cell Whatsapp Number +2349038382931 thank you

    ReplyDelete
  3. Good day friends. The truth is that GREAT MOTHER IS REAL AND UNIQUELY POWERFUL. Contact the Great Mother today and she will help you. when my husband left me for another woman, i thought that was the end but i contacted many spell casters but there was no positive responses and everything seemed not to be working and i was losing my mind until my cousin told me about the GREAT MOTHER who also helped her to bring back her man and also helped her to cure her herpes disease. I gave it a try and i contacted the Great Mother on her Website and i saw various testimonies about her on her good works how she has helped a lot of people. I explained my problems to her. she laughed and told me that, everything will be okay again and that she will help me bring back my man in 3 days time. I actually thought that it was a joke but since i had no other options, i gave it a try and i did what she instructed me do and to my greatest surprise, my man came back to me begging in 3 days time just as she told me. Contact the Great Mother now on her website:   https://Ourgreatmother1.blogspot.com   and you can also reach her on her email: Greatmotherofsolutiontemple1@gmail.com  or you can equally contact her on her whatsapp number: +17025514367

    Good day friends. The truth is that GREAT MOTHER IS REAL AND UNIQUELY POWERFUL. Contact the Great Mother today and she will help you. when my husband left me for another woman, i thought that was the end but i contacted many spell casters but there was no positive responses and everything seemed not to be working and i was losing my mind until my cousin told me about the GREAT MOTHER who also helped her to bring back her man and also helped her to cure her herpes disease. I gave it a try and i contacted the Great Mother on her Website and i saw various testimonies about her on her good works how she has helped a lot of people. I explained my problems to her. she laughed and told me that, everything will be okay again and that she will help me bring back my man in 3 days time. I actually thought that it was a joke but since i had no other options, i gave it a try and i did what she instructed me do and to my greatest surprise, my man came back to me begging in 3 days time just as she told me. Contact the Great Mother now on her website:   https://Ourgreatmother1.blogspot.com   and you can also reach her on her email: Greatmotherofsolutiontemple1@gmail.com  or you can equally contact her on her whatsapp number: +17025514367

    ReplyDelete
  4. I'm 61 years old. I contracted hpv in 2011' I has be taking lot treatment for it and embarrassed some months ago the wart stated coming out seriously, I used lot recommendation because there was lot warts around my anus and was so . but today I'm totally happy I got the virus eliminated by using natural treatment from Dr voodoo herbal center after his treatment I got cured. all the warts went away' seriously believed Dr. voodoo he have the cure for human papillomavirus because he has eliminated hpv been in my body since 2011, Dr. voodoo make it possible for me. Here is Dr. voodoo email: voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com or WhatsApp him via +2348140120719 he is welled capable of curing terrible diseases.

    ReplyDelete
  5. HAVE YOU LOST YOUR MONEY TO BINARY OPTION SCAM OR ANY ONLINE SCAM WHATSOEVER?.DO YOUR DESIRE CREDIT REPAIR[EQUIFAX, EXPERIAN, TRANSUNION? WELL, YOU HAVE FOUND REDEMPTION IN ASORE CORP.



    Asore Corp is a group of multinational Hacker's, an affiliate of Evil Corp. We make sure by all means necessary that our clients get the best of services on a🔐PAYMENT AFTER JOB IS DONE BASIS✅. Rather than send money and trust a criminal to fulfill your deal, you can make sure the job is done before WORKMANSHIP is paid for. You'll get excellent customer service.

    That's a 100% guarantee. Our Cyber security Technicians are on standby 24/7 to receive your job requests.



    ⚠️ BEWARE OF FRAUDSTARS looking to hoax.

    if you have been a VICTIM, contact : ✉️cyberprecinct@gmail.com for directives.

    Here, it's always a win for you.



    🔸OUR SERVICES🔸

    ➡️Binary Option funds recovery

    ➡️Social media hack

    ➡️Recovery of loan scam

    ➡️Credit repair (Equifax,Experian,Transunion)

    ➡️Email hack

    ➡️College score upgrade

    ➡️Android & iPhone Hack

    ➡️Website design

    ➡️Website hack

    And lots more.



    DISCLAIMER: Asore Cyber Corp accepts no responsibility for any information,previously given to anybody by clients on as regarding the job. Asore Cyber Corp will not distribute contact information collected on any hacking job other than in the Asore corps Hacker's listings themselves, and will not sell contact information to third parties.



    CONTACT INFO:

    📧 asorehackcorp@gmail.com

    cyberprecinct@gmail.com



    Copyright ©️

    Asore Cyber Corp 2021.

    All rights reserved.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Are you battling with any health related issues or infection is not the end of your life, why not contact a herbal practitioner for cure Dr Oyagu has herbal remedies and permanent solution for all your health related problems. recommend him to you today only because i have also used his herbal medicine and it worked perfectly on my health problem, you can actually save yourself from giving your hard earned money to Scammers if only you can contact Dr Oyagu today for genuine and Permanent cure herbal products . Pls help share this post to save yourself and your love ones. Dr Oyagu is specialize in these areas, Permanent herbal supplements for anxiety and depression, HIV/AIDS, Diabetes, Epilepsy, Blood, Cancer, HPV, ALS, herpes etc. Email: oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com or visit his website https://oyaguspellcaster.wixsite.com/oyaguherbalhome Or Cell Whatsapp Number +2348101755322 thank you

    ReplyDelete
  7. Never give up in life they all say no cure to HSV 2 which is a big lie I have pass through many process also i never believe there is really cure to HERPES until I meet Dr.odoma the doctor that have been helping many people for many years, I come across this doctor online when I was searching for cure online I found out about this man, and to my greatest surprise this man have the herbal medicine which I have been looking for years I explain my problem to him through the email I found on someone who testify about him also, Dr.odoma write me a reply and explain how the process work so after ordering for the medicine I got it within 4 days and I took it according to the way Dr.odoma instructed, I was so happy after two week I took the medicine there was very big change in my health when I was done with the process I go for test, I found out I am negative that was the day I have the tears of joy you can also get in contact with my doctor through his website: https://drodomasolutionhome.simdif.com/ or email now drodomasolutionhome20@gmail.com, you can also WhatsApp him +2348100649947. And He also have herbs medicine to cured the following diseases; eczema,urethra wart,chronic problems.Herpes, Cancer, Als,Hepatitis, Diabetes, HPV,Infections,ulcer ETC

    ReplyDelete
  8. The doctors said Herpes virus do not have medical cure because the virus is capable of hiding within the human cells, it remains protected from your immune system. Herpes isn’t a special virus – your immune system has the tools to fight it back. But because it is able to lay dormant in protected cells, your immune system is unable to remove it from your body,But with strong reactive herbal medication is capable of getting rid of the virus gradually and totally from your body without damaging any of your cells,natural herbs kills the virus totally not just reducing the out break. Get natural herbs cure Email DR. VOODOO at voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com Add Dr voodoo on whatsApp +2348140120719

    ReplyDelete
  9. TESTIMONY ON HOW I GOT CURED TOTALLY FROM HERPES VIRUS BY DR ISHIAKU HERBS

    I want to inform the public how I was cured of herpes Virus by a Doctor called Dr ISHIAKU. I visited different hospitals but they gave me a list of drugs like Famvir, Zovirax, and Valtrex which are very expensive to treat the symptoms and never cured me. I was browsing through the Internet searching for remedies on Herpes and I saw comments of people talking about how Doctor ishiaku cured them. I Was scared because I never believed in the Internet but I was convinced to give him a try because I had no hope of being cured of herpes so I decided to contact him on his email, i searched his email on the net and I saw a lot of people testifying about his goodness. When I contacted him he gave me hope and sent a Herbal medicine to me that I took and it seriously worked for me, am a free person now without any problems, my HERPES result came out negative. You can contact him on his email: (ishiakuherbalcure@yahoo.com)or what - sapp him via (+2348180828544) and get all your problems solved.

    1)Sickness of any kind
    2)Help to cure HEPATITIS B, DIABETICS, HIV
    3)Marriage problem, To Re-unit or to cast a spell
    4)Pregnancy problem
    5)Financial problem
    6)bad mouth odour or tooth problem
    7)eye or ear problem
    8) enlargement of manhood

    Website: www.ishiakuherbalcure.Wordpress.com

    ReplyDelete
  10. It's a pleasure for me to write this testimony about how I got my Genital Herpes cured a month ago. I have been reading so many comments of some people who were cured from various diseases by Dr. Oliha, but I never believed them. I was hurt and depressed, I was too curious and wanted to try Dr.Oliha, then I contacted him through his email ( oliha.miraclemedicine@gmail.com ) when I contacted him, he assured me 100% that he will heal me, i pleaded with him to help me out. My treatment was a great success, he healed me just as he promised. He sent me his medication and asked me to go for a check up after 14 days of taking the medication. I agreed with him and I took his medication and went for a check up, to my greatest surprise my result was negative after the treatment, i am really happy that I am cured and healthy again. I have waited for 3weeks to be very sure I was completely healed before writing this testimony. I did another blood test one week ago and it was still Herpes negative. So I guess it's time I recommend that anyone going through Herpes HSV-1 or HSV-2, HIV, HPV, Hepatitis B, Diabetes, Cancer should reach him through his Email oliha.miraclemedicine@gmail.com OR add him on whatsapp +2349038382931.
    visit his website on https://olihamiraclemedicine.webs.com/ .

    ReplyDelete
  11. There is a great herbal man called Dr voodoo who can cure Hepatitis B virus and other deadly diseases with the use of natural herbs to cure Hepatitis B virus problems. He is from Africa and he is a great doctor and he can also cure you as well if you are have the problem And other deadly disease and here is email address voodoospelltemple66@gmail.com or Whatsapp +2348140120719 HERPES CURE,CANCER CURE,HIV/AIDS CURE,HPV CURE

    ReplyDelete