I have developed an empirically deep new interpretation of the causes and consequences of the housing bubble and the financial crisis. The short version of this new understanding is:
Our fundamental economic challenge, and the fundamental cause of the housing bubble, has been a severe shortage of housing, especially in a handful of our most economically successful cities.
Credit growth was mostly along for the ride, or at best, was facilitating the movement of productive households with high incomes into the cities where the housing shortage forces households with low incomes to move away because of rising costs.
Since credit was largely blamed for the bubble and the crisis, and since credit repression has been our main policy response, we simply imposed a demand shock on top of a supply shock. Two wrongs have not made a right.
I have a thoroughly researched and conceptually complete new explanation of what has happened. I am able to share this work through oral presentations or consultation to help firms, investors, and policymakers take into account these new findings.
This work contains insights for a number of audiences.
We did not largely experience an unsustainable credit bubble, but instead experienced a localized housing shortage that metastasized into a migration event. This was the main driver of the extreme shifts in housing prices. Disruptive monetary and credit policies that were enacted as a response to these events then led to a financial panic and a decade long housing depression.
Homebuilders and real estate developers:
What does this mean for housing markets and forecasts going forward?Real estate professionals:
What does this mean for the benefits of homeownership? For the public mission of real estate services?Real estate investors:
What does this mean for future price volatility vs. past volatility of various markets? How does credit repression in homeowner markets create opportunities for higher profits and capital gains?Asset managers:
What does this mean for interest rates vs. yields on real estate investments? What does this mean for inflation measures, Fed policy, and the business cycle?Policymakers:
Households with lesser means are ill-served by exclusion. This includes exclusion through local housing obstructions and exclusion through national credit regulations. We have become afraid of access. We have become afraid of real economic growth and investment. In the name of prudence, safety, and affordability, we have stunted access and growth, which has only made affordability worse. This is clear with a decade of hindsight.
Here is a link with some information on my presentations.
I can provide oral presentations of this material or consultational services. I can focus on the empirical details, or I can focus on the broader lessons and the conclusions that can motivate real estate professionals, investors, and advocates to work for better, more inclusive outcomes.
Please e-mail me at idiosyncraticwhisk@gmail.com if you are interested in any of these services.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI am so grateful for good health, few days ago i was going to end it as i thought i have lost all my life savings to binary option trading, they kept requesting more money for me to withdraw my profit. then i asked to only take my capital thats when they went mute. I just knew i had been scammed. Thanks to a recovery company that i was introduced to by my colleague at work. I initiated a conversation via cryptosureplus at g m a i l com. They saved my life
DeleteWonderful information sharing with us. Thanks you! Also, We have an expert team that is effective at fixing all the difficulties arising in AOL Mail. AOL has a dedicated page where all the problems befalling AOL email will be resolved quickly. AOL email login page
ReplyDeleteReally informative. Thanks for sharing such a detailed account of the credit bubble. I am writing my Finance Research Proposal concerning the Credit bubble and was in search of a reliable source where I can get accurate and comprehensive information about the topic. This post has helped me a lot and has cleared many of my confusions. This post has contributed a lot in my research. I’ll use this information in my content.
ReplyDeleteI am glad you take pride in what you write. This makes you stand way out from many other writers that push poorly written content. Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic Adam Jensen Mankind Divided Cotton Coat If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with extra information? It is extremely helpful for me. thanks for wonderful info. If you want to know about the site Adam Lambert Biker Leather Jacket click here and get the best Adam Levine Denim Jacket jackets
ReplyDeleteGood Post! Thank you so much for sharing this pretty post, it was so good to read and useful to improve my knowledge as an updated one, keep blogging.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the best blog. it was very useful for me.keep sharing such ideas in the future as well.
ReplyDeleteThis is also a very good post which I really enjoyed reading. It is not every day that I have the possibility to see something like this..
ReplyDeleteThis is a great inspiration. I am pretty much pleased with your good work. You put really very helpful information. I am looking to reading your next post....
ReplyDeleteSuch great content.This is authentic. Are you also searching for nursing writing services login? we are the best solution for you. We are best known for delivering the best
ReplyDeleteI have been living with herpes since February last year and it has been a big problem for me. One day I came across a woman testimony on forum saying she get cured of her Herpes with the help of Dr AKHIGBE herbal medicine at first I did not believe I was doubting because my doctor told me there is no cure for this disease, so I contacted him with the email the lady drop and write to him about my problems, he told me not to worry that am in the right place he told me what to do to get cured so I really did it few months later I went to the doctor and did test and discover that am totally cured from herpes. Thank you Dr AKHIGBE for proving yourself to me. I am grateful. I keep sharing the good news to everyone who is suffering from herpes. There is truly a cure for herpes. You may need his Email drakhigbeherbalhome5@gmail.com or contact him on his whatSApp number +2349021374 574
ReplyDeleteKevinand's speaking and consulting services sound exciting. Can you provide more information about digital marketing thesis topics or areas he specializes in? It's always good to learn from experts in your field.
ReplyDeleteThe idea of crypto investing again really scares me, i have ptsd already. I am just grateful to have recovered my lost stolen crypto thanks to Joe, i reached out to joe via g m a i l on joehackexpert at g ma i l com. I told him about the investment and how i kept paying them but couldn't withdraw. He got access to the platform and i was able to get my capital back. Investment is risky.
ReplyDelete