Kevin's Speaking and Consultational Services

I have developed an empirically deep new interpretation of the causes and consequences of the housing bubble and the financial crisis.  The short version of this new understanding is:

Our fundamental economic challenge, and the fundamental cause of the housing bubble, has been a severe shortage of housing, especially in a handful of our most economically successful cities.

Credit growth was mostly along for the ride, or at best, was facilitating the movement of productive households with high incomes into the cities where the housing shortage forces households with low incomes to move away because of rising costs.

Since credit was largely blamed for the bubble and the crisis, and since credit repression has been our main policy response, we simply imposed a demand shock on top of a supply shock.  Two wrongs have not made a right.

I have a thoroughly researched and conceptually complete new explanation of what has happened.  I am able to share this work through oral presentations or consultation to help firms, investors, and policymakers take into account these new findings.

This work contains insights for a number of audiences.

We did not largely experience an unsustainable credit bubble, but instead experienced a localized housing shortage that metastasized into a migration event.  This was the main driver of the extreme shifts in housing prices.  Disruptive monetary and credit policies that were enacted as a response to these events then led to a financial panic and a decade long housing depression.

Homebuilders and real estate developers:

  What does this mean for housing markets and forecasts going forward?

Real estate professionals:

What does this mean for the benefits of homeownership? For the public mission of real estate services?

Real estate investors:

What does this mean for future price volatility vs. past volatility of various markets?  How does credit repression in homeowner markets create opportunities for higher profits and capital gains?

Asset managers:

What does this mean for interest rates vs. yields on real estate investments?  What does this mean for inflation measures, Fed policy, and the business cycle?

Policymakers:

Households with lesser means are ill-served by exclusion.  This includes exclusion through local housing obstructions and exclusion through national credit regulations.  We have become afraid of access.  We have become afraid of real economic growth and investment.  In the name of prudence, safety, and affordability, we have stunted access and growth, which has only made affordability worse.  This is clear with a decade of hindsight.

Here is a link with some information on my presentations.

I can provide oral presentations of this material or consultational services.  I can focus on the empirical details, or I can focus on the broader lessons and the conclusions that can motivate real estate professionals, investors, and advocates to work for better, more inclusive outcomes.

Please e-mail me at idiosyncraticwhisk@gmail.com if you are interested in any of these services.