Tuesday, January 28, 2014

North Carolina FTW!

The results from North Carolina continue to be extremely positive.  If this foretells the national experience, hold on to your hats, people, it's going to be a heck of a year.

This first graph is monthly changes, in thousands of people.  This is not a cumulative graph, folks.  The divergence in the employment and unemployment indicators is momentum.  That means that each month is improving at a faster pace than the months before.

Below, I have updates of the graphs I had done, comparing the North Carolina stats to the national stats.  The North Carolina unemployment rate is down a whopping 2% since Emergency Unemployment Insurance was terminated.

I still have some question about whether any of the labor movements before June, which weren't positive, might have been related to the policy.  But, here's what I said two months ago:
It looks plausible that the North Carolina experience will support both of my estimates that (1) unemployment is about 1% higher than it would be without EUI and that (2) LFP is slightly higher (less than 0.2%).
Holy cow, look at this graph, of unusual movements in the North Carolina data, compared to the national data.  LFP down about 0.2% and unemployment down more than 1% since the end of the policy.  I need to start charging you people some serious cash-ola for this information.

Here are all the graphs of North Carolina compared to the national numbers.

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