I haven't updated the inflation numbers for a while. Covid-19 has probably made it difficult to say too much, because there are so many compositional shifts in the demand basket. But I think it is worth taking a look at what is happening in rent inflation.
Much of the drop in the stated core CPI number is coming from declining rent inflation (or shelter inflation). Core inflation excluding shelter is still below 2%, so the Fed has room to goose spending within their mandate. Trailing 12 month shelter inflation has declined from about 3.4% to 1.7% since the Covid-19 outbreak, and the run-rate may not be positive.Real-time data suggests that much of this appears to be related to some amount of exodus from expensive cities like San Francisco and New York City. However, declining CPI-measured rent inflation is pretty evenly distributed among the major metro areas.
There are three periods of sharply declining rents in this period, and it is interesting to compare them. In 2002-2003, construction was hot and new supply was bringing down rents in cities with elastic supply (Dallas and Atlanta, but not New York and LA). Then, from 2008-2010, the foreclosure crisis and the sharp tightening in lending markets created a negative demand shock for shelter, driving down rent inflation everywhere. That was associated with very low rates of construction.
Now, the decline in rent inflation is associated with low but moderately rising construction activity. If that continues, it would suggest that lower rent inflation is mostly due to income shocks and the specific character of the Covid-19 context, where landlords may be opting for more leniency until the market settles. If there really is a persistent shift of housing preference into less dense cities and housing units, then that should be associated with rising demand for shelter and more construction, not lower rents. In that case, there would be a compositional shift out of the expensive cities, and rent inflation might decline as tenants leave the expensive cities (pulling rents there down) and move to cities where new demand is met by supply rather than price inflation. The fact that rent inflation is currently declining in cities like Phoenix, which we should expect to be the destination for some of those moving tenants, suggests that income shocks are more important now than inter-MSA migration.
Interesting post.
ReplyDeleteI suspect several cities will have a big job ahead in improving livability. But then, I thought the same thing back in the 1970s.
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Living with herpes virus was the worst situation I've ever been in due to work and tending to my family needs but finally tested negative after using the herbal medicine I ordered from him. His Email drodiagbesolutionhome@gmail. com
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HOW I GOT MY EX HUSBAND BACK WITH THE HELP OF REAL AND EFFECTIVE SPELL FROM DR Owo. I never thought I will smile again, My husband left me with two kids for 5 year, All effort to bring him back failed I thought I'm not going to see him again not until I met a lady called Lisa who told me about a spell caster called Dr Owo , She gave me his contact: drowoherbs@gmail.com I contacted him and he assured me that within 48hours my husband will come back to me, In less than 48hours my husband came back started begging for forgiveness saying it is the devils work, so I'm still surprise till now about this miracle, i couldn't conceive but as soon as the priest pray for me, i became pregnant and gave birth to my third child, My heart is filled up of happiness to share my life marriage and relationship story with you over here. If you need any assistance from him you can contact him via: drowoherbs@gmail.com
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ReplyDeleteWhatsApp/Call/Text +1 (740) 573-9483
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Dr. Ehimare has really made me so much believe in him by getting me cured of Herpes with his herbal medicine. I have been a Herpes virus patient for some time now, I have been running here and there looking for help/cure but none could help. I ran into a testimony by someone who testified how she was cured of a terrible disease by Dr. Ehimare, so I decided to contact the herbal doctor. I explained to him, and he said he can cure me. We started the process and he prepared herbs and sent them to me in my country and gave me directions on how I am to use them. I followed his directions and now To God be the glory he could cure me with his herbal mixture. I really appreciate you Dr. Ehimare for bringing back happiness to my life again. thanks you so much friends that has join me to thank Dr. Ehimare for what he has actually done for me i pray to you all for a good life and property, his contact. Email address drehimare3@gmail.com , via whats-app +1 (267) 691-1087 Thanks Dr. Ehimare for your help in my life and family... and most especially to you Dr. THANKS.
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ReplyDeleteDr voodoo who use his herbs to cure my HIV disease I suffered from 15years,
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