Sunday, August 2, 2020

Trends in Housing Supply

Here's a little sneak peak into some work I've been finishing up.   This graph shows the number of permits issued for single family homes and multi-unit projects (duplexes on up to high rise condos).  The measure is the number of units as a percentage of existing homes.  In other words, what is the gross percentage growth in the housing stock, due to single unit and multi unit building.  The black lines are the averages among all large metros.  The red lines are the averages among the "Closed Access" cities - New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, San Francisco, San Diego, and San Jose.

I find several interesting items to note here:

1) Of course, the Closed Access cities build single family homes at much lower rates than anywhere else.  Also, there was absolutely no supply response in the Closed Access cities in the single family market due to the subprime lending boom.  The rate of single family building was lower in 2005 than it had been in any year since 1996.  I have heard anecdotal defenses of the housing bust, claiming that even cities like LA had excess supply where single family homes were being built in the suburbs, where there wasn't really demand for them.  That idea is belied by the data.

2) However, as prices increased, there was a tremendous supply response in the Closed Access cities in multi-unit projects.  In spite of the horror stories of the local hoops one must jump through to build apartments, the Closed Access cities really are building many more apartments than they had before 2003.

3) Since 2004, in fact, the rate of multi-unit building in the Closed Access cities has matched the national average.  In the end, the regulatory obstacles create higher prices.  Potential residents push prices up until it is worth the trouble to build units.  The regulatory obstacles now are raising prices rather than pushing down new supply, relative to other cities.  This suggests that demand is inelastic.  Agglomeration effects, etc. are strong.  This is, in fact, bad news.  This suggests that the regulatory limits to multi-unit housing are more widespread than just the Closed Access cities.  As bad as the regulatory environment is in the Closed Access cities, other cities are not building multi-unit housing at a rate significantly higher than they are.

4) The deep cuts to mortgage lending since 2007 have cut into single family building in the Closed Access cities just as much as they have in other cities.  Building in the Closed Access cities has nearly recovered to pre-crisis levels, but that's all multi-unit.  In the 1970s and 1980s, it was common for multi-unit building to be double or triple what it is today.  To get anywhere close to that today would require a wholesale regulatory overhaul across the country.

Fortunately, the political center seems to be moving in that direction.  We have a long way to go.

I am finishing up a paper with much more detail on housing supply before the crisis, and another with much more detail on the influences on home prices.

84 comments:

  1. Interesting post. Yes, my understanding is that the land for single-family housing in Los Angeles has been built out, there is no more. There is construction in downtown LA -Hollywood etc. Of course it is multifamily.


    "In the 1970s and 1980s, it was common for multi-unit building to be double or triple what it is today. To get anywhere close to that today would require a wholesale regulatory overhaul across the country.

    Fortunately, the political center seems to be moving in that direction. We have a long way to go."

    I applaud your optimism.

    From what I can see, the political center today is between Donks who love BLM and 'Phants who hate BLM, with hostilities as fanned constantly by left-wing and right-wing media.

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ha! Things have gotten a bit crazy.

      You are probably right that it is harder to find undeveloped acres there. I suppose Riverside is where it can happen today. Yet, the drop in single-family starts after 2005 surely is due to the same headwinds affecting all cities, rather than land constraints.

      But, yeah, the fact that the housing boom building expansion was all in multi-family in the Closed Access cities suggests that infill is what will be needed for those cities to grow as much as they should be.

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  2. Striking data. It's hard not to have strong normative feelings that policy should be seeking overshots of those 70s and 80s numbers. Important for mental health to try to stay merely descriptive, though, or risk banging one's head against immovable anti-developmentalism

    in Seattle and a few other places upzoners have tried for years to organize reformist energy around anti-racist motifs, and it seems to work ok. lots of Donks here so it's a welcome opportunity to signal serious virtuousness (which, if you're signaling, and we're signaling, isn't the worst thing to signal). WA's legislature passed an ADU legalization bill for all towns with 5 digit populations or better, if I remember correctly, that will remove parking requirements for ADUs near decent public transit service by 2021. One of the authors of the bill is the main progressive candidate for Lieutenant Governor, I think, with a special election for Governor thought to be likely if Joe Biden nominates Governor Inslee for a cabinet position

    MA appears to have passed a bill that would permit city legislatures to change zoning without super-majorities. hopefully most of the changes will be upzones!

    I hope if construction is more conducive to adequate social distancing (and more outdoors) than restaurants that politicians see it as a budget-boosting way to create blue collar jobs in our weird predicament

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah. We tend to take growth for granted, but housing regulation really does give a direct view into how easy it is for a society to devolve - to put fetters on itself and then debate passionately about all the reasons (except the fetters) that things aren't going well. It really is possible to lose cultural and political capacity.

      But, as you point out, it really does seem like the pendulum has started swinging in a better direction.

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  18. I am here to testify about what DR. KHAM did for me. I have been suffering from (GENITAL HERPES VIRUS) disease for the past 3 years and had constant pain and itching, especially in my private part. During the first year, I had faith in God that I would be cured someday .This disease started circulating all over my body and I have been taking treatment from my doctor, few weeks ago I came across a testimony of Rose Smith on the internet testifying about a Man called DR. KHAM on how he cured her from 7 years HSV 2. And she also gave the email address of this man, advising anybody to contact him for help on any kind of diseases that he would be of help, so I emailed him telling him about my (HSV 2) he told me not to worry that I was going to be cured!! Well, I never doubted him. I have faith he can cure me too, DR. KHAM prepared and sent me Healing Oil, Soap, roots and herbs which I took. In the first one week, I started experiencing changes all over me, after four weeks of using his Roots/ Herbs, Oil and Soap, I was totally cured. no more inching , pain on me anymore as DR. KHAM assured me. After some time I went to my doctor to do another test. the result came out negative. So friends my advice is if you have such a disease or know anyone who suffers from it or any other disease like HPV, HBV, HIV, ALS, HBP, CANCER etc. you can contact DR. KHAM for help via email} dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com you can also WhatsApp him through his mobile} +2348159922297, You can Also Visit his website to know more about him at > https://drkhamcaregiver.wixsite.com/drkhamcaregiverherba  Thanks once again DR. KHAM for making me a happy woman again           

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  20. To know more about Chief Dr Lucky you can visit his website (https://chiefdrluckyherbaltherapy.wordpress.com/)
     
     A friend that suffered from Herpes and was cure with the help of this great herbal doctor Chief Lucky so i decided to contact him for help in getting rid of my families genital herpes virus 1/2 which i did and all i was told to provide was just some useful information and some materials used in preparation of the natural cure and that i did and now i am the happiest person on earth because i am writing this testimony of mine with joy and happiness in my heart to the whole world to know that natural remedy is real because i am a living testimony of Chief Lucky traditional herbal cure and i want you all to contact Chief Lucky via his email: chiefdrlucky@gmail.com or WhatsApp him +2348132777335 am sure he will help you too.

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  21. Herbal medicine is the best Greetings I am here to testify how great man called Dr OMO helped me out with herbs and roots which he prepared for me in use of curing my fibroids and Getting pregnant after 8 years of trying to conceive with fibroids I takes his product (cure for my fibroid made with herbal medicine Root) for (14) days before I am to known I was totally pregnant after 2months of  using dr omo herbs he also  have Herbal medical for all types of diseases, and i promised him that i will tell the world about his Great job he ask me to drink from the herbal medicine before meeting my husband I did and after 2months I was pregnant thank you for your great job he can also help you  if you have a low sperm count  you want to  convince a baby fast  PCOS ,infections, Hepatitis B, ALS, UTI, stomach ucler , Endometriosis, breast cancer,HIV?AID, Cancer, yeast infection, Gonorrhea, Chronic Sinus, HPV , Genital Warts low testosterone, Herpes1&2, blocked fallopian tubes Liver parasites ovarian Arthritis, Cysts, pile, ORAL HERPES ,PARKINSON'S, Crowns and all other type of  diseases, COPD , breast cancer, Get lost period back, stop period pain, Email : dromo596@gmail.com WhatsApp him on +2349033505260 thank you for all your work..

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  23. I have been suffering from (HERPES) disease for the last two years and had constant pain, especially in my knees. During the first year,I had faith in God that i would be healed someday.This disease started circulate all over my body and i have been taking treatment from my doctor, few weeks ago i came on search on the internet if i could get any information concerning the prevention of this disease, on my search i saw a testimony of someone who has been healed from (Hepatitis B and Cancer) by this Man Dr GODWIN and she also gave the email address of this man and advise we should contact him for any sickness that he would be of help, so i wrote to Dr GODWIN telling him about my (HERPES Virus) he told me not to worry that i was going to be cured!! hmm i never believed it,, well after all the procedures and remedy given to me by this man few weeks later i started experiencing changes all over me as the Dr GODWIN me that i have cured,after some time i went to my doctor to confirmed if i have be finally healed behold it was TRUE, So friends my advise is if you have such sickness or any other at all you can email Dr GODWIN on :(drgodwinsolutinonhome@gmail.com or WhatsApp +2348054615060) sir i am indeed grateful for the help i will forever recommend you to my friends!!!
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  24. I am here to explore blogs forum about the wonderful and most safe cure for HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS . I was positive to the deadly Virus called HERPES and i lost hope completely because i was rejected even by my closet friends. i searched online to know and inquire about cure for HERPES and i saw Dr ERAYO testimony online on how he was cured so many persons from Herpes Disease. so i decided to contact the great herbalist because i know that nature has the power to heal everything. i contacted him to know how he can help me and he told me never to worry that he will help me with the natural herbs from God! after 2 days of contacting him, he told me that the cure has been ready and he sent it to me via FEDEX or DHL and it got to me after 4 days! i used the medicine as he instructed me (MORNING and EVENING) and i was cured! its really like a dream but i'm so happy! that's the reason i decided to also add more comment of Him so that more people can be saved just like me! and if you need his help, contact his Email: (drerayoherbalhome@gmail.com) you can contact him on whatsapp +2348151937428.
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  25. This is another testimony on how Chief Dr Lucky cured my HIV disease. Do you need a cure for your HIV disease? Do you want to be cured from your cancer disease? Or you want to be free from any type of disease. Kindly visit his website https://chiefdrluckyherbaltherapy.wordpress.com/ , he just cured my HIV disease and I’m very grateful to him, he is the only herbalist that can cure you.  
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    Thank you all for reading,
    God bless"

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  26. Dr. Kham herbal medicine is the best remedy for Herpes and HIV/AIDS, I was a carrier of Herpes and I saw a testimony on how Dr. Kham cure Herpes, I decided to have a contact with him and asked him for help and he started the remedies for my health and prepare the herbal medicine for me which i use to cure myself. Thank God, now everything is fine, I’m cured by Dr. Kham herbal medicine, I’m very thankful to Dr.Kham and i will not stop publishing his name on the internet because of the good work he did for me, You can reach him on his email: dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com Or you can call and WhatsApp him on +2348159922297  Visit his Blog at https://drkhamcaregiver.blogspot.com/        

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  27. Having herpes or any kind of sickness/ disease is not the end of life, There are treatments to get rid of genital herpes/ disease with traditional herbs from Dr. Kham. I was positive about this infection (HERPES) and I lost hope because I was outcast and rejected even by my best friends. I searched on line to know more on how to eradicate this virus and enquirer about cure for herpes and i got a testimony posted by Dr. Kham patient on how she was cured from HSV-2, So i decided to contact the same herbalist Dr. Kham because i know that nature has the power to heal everything, So i contacted him to know he can help me and he told me never to worry that he will help me out with his natural herbs created by God Almighty! After 2 days of contacting him, He told me that the cure has been prepared and he will send it to me via (UPS DELIVERY SERVICES) and it got to me in 5 days! I used the medicine as he instructed me(MORNING AND EVENING)  and I was cured after taking the dosage for two weeks. It really looks like a dream to me but I am so happy now!! that is the reason i decided to also add more comment of Him to this blog because that was what i promise him that i would testify about his good work to the people if his herbal medicine would cure me, So if you need his help also, You can Email him on dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com or Whatsapp him via +2348159922297 for more information you can visit his website: https://herbal-dr-kham.jimdosite.com or visit his blog: https://drkhamcaregiver.blogspot.com/

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  31. I was a HIV-AIDS patient and I got it from cheating on my wife. It was sort of a payback but a week later I was told by a friend that the person who I cheated with had the HIV-AIDS virus and did not tell me. I was so stupid by not using a condom I thought since he was an old school friend he was trustworthy. But I was wrong. I cried and cried. Two days later, I got a phone call from my friend and he told me about a person who is known by another friend, who can help me. I could not let my wife know what I was going through. I finally got his email address: oseremenspelltemple@gmail.com and I emailed this man my story and he replied me immediately saying i should be calm and told me that everything will be OK. I could not come to terms with what I was hearing but then I concluded it did not matter because I was so broken I just needed help. I was going out of my mind literally. I was confused with what he was telling me, but I listened. He told me about some materials i need to buy that he needed to cast the spell and I said OK. I bought the materials to him, I sent down my picture to him and my positive result sheet and he replied me that i am going to be negative under 3days. I message Him every 2hours for 2day and I knew he thought that I was crazy but I did care I needed a shoulder. Behold, the third day he messaged me i should go for a test that i will be negative. My marriage could be broken because of a stupid mistake and my life was on the line. I remembered when I was going to get the results of my re-test I called him up again and told him that I was going to get my results today and his reply was “so" and that everything will be as he explained. I knew then that he was getting tired of me calling him, maybe I was wrong. Well I got my results and the first person I called was him - again. As he said hello I started to cry and cry. I could not believe it. I was given a second chance in life.This man is a great spiritual HIV/AIDS healer, his healing spell on aids healing is very powerful .please brothers and sister, contact Dr Ose oseremenspelltemple@gmail.com
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