Saturday, August 1, 2020

July 2020 Yield Curve Update

The Fed is failing us.  It started out great.  The initial reaction to the pandemic was timely and forceful.  The yield curve on March 18 was signaling confidence.  But, since then, we have been slowly sinking into stagnation.  The long end of the Eurodollar curve is barely over 1% now.  It is true that forward inflation expectations have continued to slowly rise, though they are still well under 2%.

Here are two graphs of yields.  The first shows the Eurodollar curve at several points in time.  It is now at a new low.  The second shows the expected date of the bottom in short term yields.  The yield curve bottom is now settling in on March 2022.  The date is moving away from us over time, not toward us.  This was the pattern during QE1-3, when QEs were on, the date of the first rate increase would stabilize, but the Fed always cut the QEs off before we actually arrived at the date, and when they would stop the QEs, the date would move off into the future again.

When the yield curve inverted in 2019, the Fed reacted moderately well to it, and at least the expected date of the next rate hike was relatively stable, ranging around June 2021 for all of 2019.  Then, their aggressive moves in March actually briefly moved the date closer.  I thought that the pandemic might have actually kicked them into gear a bit to focus more on nominal economic recovery.  Briefly, in March, the expected first rate hike had moved as far as September - next month.  But that didn't last.

This is not a comment on all the emergency lending programs.  They simply should be buying a lot more Treasuries until nominal income or inflation expectations recover more.

28 comments:

  1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

    At least breakeven inflation is still recovering. But still below target at 1.55%. What's taking them so long. They should have never allowed to let long term expectations crash like that.

    ReplyDelete
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  2. And the 5 year breakeven is even lower at 1.40%.
    I also notice that the rising breakeven is being driven by increasingly negative TIPS yields. Falling real rates is not a good sign. If the Fed gets to its target of 2% PCE (so approx. 2.3% breakeven) via negative 2% TIPS rates on the 5 year, that will not be a good thing. We need NGDPLT now.

    ReplyDelete
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  17. This is another testimony on how Chief Dr Lucky cured my HIV disease. Do you need a cure for your HIV disease? Do you want to be cured from your cancer disease? Or you want to be free from any type of disease. Kindly visit his website https://chiefdrluckyherbaltherapy.wordpress.com/ , he just cured my HIV disease and I’m very grateful to him, he is the only herbalist that can cure you.  
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  18. Dr. Kham herbal medicine is the best remedy for Herpes and HIV/AIDS, I was a carrier of Herpes and I saw a testimony on how Dr. Kham cure Herpes, I decided to have a contact with him and asked him for help and he started the remedies for my health and prepare the herbal medicine for me which i use to cure myself. Thank God, now everything is fine, I’m cured by Dr. Kham herbal medicine, I’m very thankful to Dr.Kham and i will not stop publishing his name on the internet because of the good work he did for me, You can reach him on his email: dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com Or you can call and WhatsApp him on +2348159922297  Visit his Blog at https://drkhamcaregiver.blogspot.com/        

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  19. Having herpes or any kind of sickness/ disease is not the end of life, There are treatments to get rid of genital herpes/ disease with traditional herbs from Dr. Kham. I was positive about this infection (HERPES) and I lost hope because I was outcast and rejected even by my best friends. I searched on line to know more on how to eradicate this virus and enquirer about cure for herpes and i got a testimony posted by Dr. Kham patient on how she was cured from HSV-2, So i decided to contact the same herbalist Dr. Kham because i know that nature has the power to heal everything, So i contacted him to know he can help me and he told me never to worry that he will help me out with his natural herbs created by God Almighty! After 2 days of contacting him, He told me that the cure has been prepared and he will send it to me via (UPS DELIVERY SERVICES) and it got to me in 5 days! I used the medicine as he instructed me(MORNING AND EVENING)  and I was cured after taking the dosage for two weeks. It really looks like a dream to me but I am so happy now!! that is the reason i decided to also add more comment of Him to this blog because that was what i promise him that i would testify about his good work to the people if his herbal medicine would cure me, So if you need his help also, You can Email him on dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com or Whatsapp him via +2348159922297 for more information you can visit his website: https://herbal-dr-kham.jimdosite.com or visit his blog: https://drkhamcaregiver.blogspot.com/

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  20. [ ] I'm here to testify about the great work Dr Osebor did for me. I have been suffering from (HERPES) disease for the past 5 years and had constant pain, especially in my knees. During the first year,I had faith in God that i would be healed someday.This disease started circulating all over my body and i have been taking treatment from my doctor, few weeks ago I came across a testimony of one lady on the internet testifying about a Man called Dr Osebor on how he cured her from HIV Virus. And she also gave the email address of this man and advise anybody to contact Dr Osebor for help for any kind of sickness that he would be of help, so I emailed him on ( oseborwinbacktemple@gmail.com ) telling him about my (HERPES Virus) he told me not to worry that i was going to be cured!! Well i never believed it,, well after all the procedures and remedy given to me by this man few weeks later i started experiencing changes all over me as Dr Osebor assured me that i will be cured,after some time i went to my doctor to confirmed if i have be finally healed behold it was TRUE, So 
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