Thursday, February 13, 2020

January 2020 CPI Update

Nothing to really say here.  Shelter inflation continues at 3+%, non-shelter core inflation keeps muddling along at about 1.5%.  There is nothing particularly unsustainable about this, regarding the business cycle.  It's just a continuation of the sign that the Fed is erring toward hawkish.  There is room to loosen and avoid contraction. But the odds are probably on the side of eventually having some real shock that pushes us into recessionary conditions, or at least falling yields.

2 comments:

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