Last quarter, I posted an update on homeownership rates at Mercatus. Recently updates for the 4th quarter came out from the Census Bureau. This is noisy data, so it's tough to get much out of quarter-to-quarter changes. You sort of need to wait for trends to be established.
For what it's worth, the homeownership rate increased slightly this quarter. It could be the beginning of a trend, but for ages above 44, homeownership has been pretty flat for a while.
One way to look at this is how homeownership grows with each cohort. For instance, comparing the homeownership rate of 35-44 year-olds from ten years ago to the rate of 45-54 year-olds today can tell us how many of that age cohort have become homeowners over the past decade. Here is a chart for 45-54 year-olds and 55-64 year-olds, based on annual data the Census Bureau has published since 1982.
The good news is that, within age cohorts, the rate of new buyers has begun to recover. The net effect on the homeownership rate for those age groups is flat, because while there are an increasing number of new owners, the homeownership rate of those cohorts 10 years ago was dropping like a stone.
This suggests that the homeownership rates of the middle-aged groups will remain flat at their current low levels for a while. The housing bust created a big, gaping wound in the life plans of a generation or two of Americans, and it looks like that wound will continue to be visible for a while.
Looking at the next graph, which just shows the annual homeownership rate of each age group since 1982 highlights something interesting. In 1992, when only 5% and 3% of 45-54 and 55-64 year-olds became owners over the course of a decade, that is because about 70% of 35-44 year-olds had already been owners in 1982. So, in 2004, after a decade where these cohorts really increased their rate of buying as they got older, their total homeownership rate wasn't that different than it had been in 1992. By retirement, about 80% of households tended to become homeowners, and the difference over time was that some generations became owners earlier than others. This is a point I made in "Shut Out". It isn't really the case that there were suddenly a bunch of "unqualified" buyers in the late 1990s and early 2000s buying homes. It was really just a matter of households buying homes they would have eventually bought anyway, but just buying them a couple years earlier. A return to the homeownership trends of the early 80s.
So, the thing is, looking back at the previous graph of the two cohorts, the ownership rate of 35-44 year-olds today is only about 60%. Way below any previous range. For 80% of them to become homeowners by the time they retire, as their parents and grandparents had, their homeownership rate will need to increase by 20% over the next couple of decades. That's a rate of rising ownership for 45 to 64 year-olds that is much higher than the peak rates of 2004.
The good news is that those cohorts are finally buying again. But, the rate of buying required to make up for the lost decade is sizeable.
Excellent post.
ReplyDeleteWe may see Trump versus Sanders in 2020.
It really is a shame that all of these stresses are blamed on too much capitalism.
DeleteHappiness is all i see now, i was herpes sicker for 6 years but i thank God for directing my footsteps to Dr Emu, he gave me instructions and i followed and in 2 weeks i was completely cured using his medicine, I am now Herpes Negative Contact Dr Emu for more information, He also has other cure to other ailment, HIV AIDS, CANCER, DIABETES, HEART DISEASE, HEPATITIS B/C And also restore broken relationships such as Ex HUSBAND, Ex WIFE, BROKEN MARRIAGES, Any kind of Problem in any relationship can be restore back in 24hours, Just Email: emutemple@gmail.com Whatsapp or call: +2347012841542
DeleteThe voters want a socialist or a populist in the White House. Sanders v. Trump, at lest that is how it looks now.
ReplyDeleteGee, I wonder why?
I think a few more paeans to income stratification will set those voters straight. Let us rhapsodize about open borders for immigrants desperate for a job. And the US can prevail in the Mideast! And globally, everywhere!
When US factories shut down, that means consumers benefit! Housing supply is not a problem, and rent control is bad.
So, a one-bedroom apartment in Los Angeles rents for $2,350 a month. Data from the annual Milliman Medical Index shows the most common health care plan for a family of four costs on average $28,166 in 2018.
The establishment is lucky to get Trump. It could be a lot worse. Sadly, I think eventually it will get worse.
The right-wing does not want to cut the employment-class in on the deal (not even through market mechanisms such as abolishing property zoning, and cutting taxes on wages, and sensible border controls), and the left-wing is obsessed with identity politics and public "solutions" that could make matters worse.
Hope for the best....prepare for?
Omg I Finally Got Helped !! I'm so excited right now, I just have to share my testimony on this Forum.. The feeling of being loved takes away so much burden from our shoulders. I had all this but I made a big mistake when I cheated on my wife with another woman and my wife left me for over 4 months after she found out.. I was lonely, sad and devastated. Luckily I was directed to a very powerful spell caster Dr Emu who helped me cast a spell of reconciliation on our Relationship and he brought back my wife and now she loves me far more than ever.. I'm so happy with life now. Thank you so much Dr Emu, kindly Contact Dr Emu Today and get any kind of help you want.. Via Email emutemple@gmail.com or Call/WhatsApp +2347012841542
ReplyDeleteI am here to explore blogs forum about the wonderful and most safe cure for HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS . I was positive to the deadly Virus called HERPES and i lost hope completely because i was rejected even by my closet friends. i searched online to know and inquire about cure for HERPES and i saw Dr ERAYO testimony online on how he was cured so many persons from Herpes Disease. so i decided to contact the great herbalist because i know that nature has the power to heal everything. i contacted him to know how he can help me and he told me never to worry that he will help me with the natural herbs from God! after 2 days of contacting him, he told me that the cure has been ready and he sent it to me via FEDEX or DHL and it got to me after 4 days! i used the medicine as he instructed me (MORNING and EVENING) and i was cured! its really like a dream but i'm so happy! that's the reason i decided to also add more comment of Him so that more people can be saved just like me! and if you need his help, contact his Email: (drerayoherbalhome@gmail.com) you can contact him on whatsapp +2348151937428.
ReplyDeleteHe also cure the below listed sickness;
(1) HERPES,
(2) DIABETES,
(3) HIV&AIDS,
(4) URINARY TRACT INFECTION,
(5) HEPATITIS B,
(6) IMPOTENCE,
(7) BARENESS/INFERTILITY
(8) DIARRHEA
(9) ASTHMA...
https://alternativeherbs.weebly.com
I was a HIV-AIDS patient and I got it from cheating on my wife. It was sort of a payback but a week later I was told by a friend that the person who I cheated with had the HIV-AIDS virus and did not tell me. I was so stupid by not using a condom I thought since he was an old school friend he was trustworthy. But I was wrong. I cried and cried. Two days later, I got a phone call from my friend and he told me about a person who is known by another friend, who can help me. I could not let my wife know what I was going through. I finally got his email address: oseremenspelltemple@gmail.com and I emailed this man my story and he replied me immediately saying i should be calm and told me that everything will be OK. I could not come to terms with what I was hearing but then I concluded it did not matter because I was so broken I just needed help. I was going out of my mind literally. I was confused with what he was telling me, but I listened. He told me about some materials i need to buy that he needed to cast the spell and I said OK. I bought the materials to him, I sent down my picture to him and my positive result sheet and he replied me that i am going to be negative under 3days. I message Him every 2hours for 2day and I knew he thought that I was crazy but I did care I needed a shoulder. Behold, the third day he messaged me i should go for a test that i will be negative. My marriage could be broken because of a stupid mistake and my life was on the line. I remembered when I was going to get the results of my re-test I called him up again and told him that I was going to get my results today and his reply was “so" and that everything will be as he explained. I knew then that he was getting tired of me calling him, maybe I was wrong. Well I got my results and the first person I called was him - again. As he said hello I started to cry and cry. I could not believe it. I was given a second chance in life.This man is a great spiritual HIV/AIDS healer, his healing spell on aids healing is very powerful .please brothers and sister, contact Dr Ose oseremenspelltemple@gmail.com
ReplyDeletewhatsapp +2348136482342www.facebook.com/Dr-odion-spell-temple-110513923938220