Tuesday, January 14, 2020

December 2019 CPI Update

Not much to say.  More of the same.  Shelter inflation tracking over 3%, non-shelter core around 1.5%, and core CPI about 2.2%.  I don't think short-term inflation fluctuations are very informative at this point, unless they veer wildly in one direction or the other.  I still think the most likely event in the near term is a decline in interest rates, so I am still mostly holding on to bond exposure and keeping powder dry on some potential tactical equity positions, except for positions with some defensive elements.  For instance, Hovnanian, a homebuilder, (HOV) that is highly leveraged, financially and operationally, and poised to recover because of the both defensive and speculative potential of that sector.  I actually consider that position a sort of hedge against a bond position, in part, because I think a primary factor holding yields down is the lack of residential investment.

2 comments:

  1. Without shelter inflation...there would hardly be any inflation, as measured.

    Japan has less shelter inflation and of course very little inflation, and at times no inflation despite there being 157 job openings for every 100 job hunters.

    When I was taking econ, back in the era of Fortran cards, there was no idea that housing and demographics could have a major role in measured inflation.



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