Core CPI continues to ride along the 2% target range, bifurcated between shelter and non-shelter prices. CPI shelter inflation is at about 3.3% over the past 12 months. The non-shelter core components are now down to 1.0% over the past 12 months.
I have been suggesting that long bond positions would be profitable, and expecting that an inertial Fed would create marginal buying opportunities in other assets as that opportunity played out. The long bond position is mostly finished because of the zero bound. Mid-to-long term rates aren't able to go much lower. If the Fed gets ahead of things here, maybe they will curb any pullbacks in equity markets or housing markets. I'm happy to see that tactical opportunity disappear if it means the Fed doesn't encourage unnecessary contractions. In fact, maybe that would make those opportunities even more fruitful, without waiting on a pullback, if the economic expansion is allowed to continue, chipping away at risk aversion.
But, the story remains. Inflation is very low. To the extent that real wage growth continues to disappoint, this is largely a structural supply issue that creates a transfer from tenants to real estate owners, which is measured as inflation.
But, the story remains. Inflation is very low. To the extent that real wage growth continues to disappoint, this is largely a structural supply issue that creates a transfer from tenants to real estate owners, which is measured as inflation.---KE
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