Monday, January 28, 2019

Washington Examiner reviews "Shut Out"

Joseph Lawler at the Washington Examiner did an excellent job writing a detailed review of "Shut Out".

He even contacted Mian and Sufi both for comment. (Their work is subjected to extensive reinterpretation in the book.) They understandably didn't have time to provide thorough feedback.

I will be very pleased if every journalist has anywhere close to the understanding and accuracy that Joseph has.

5 comments:

  1. Have you tried reaching out to Mian and Sufi? It would be great hearing them say that their data supports your analysis/conclusions.

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    Replies
    1. I haven't. I don't really question their findings so much as reinterpret them with the benefit of new information. I think the best way to get their reaction (and probably the only way) is for them to come upon it, in its entirety, after it has gathered some reputational capital, so that they are willing to grapple with it.

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  2. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com

    House prices rising in relation to rents?

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    Replies
    1. Yes. Prices have been slowly recovering, but you have to keep in mind that the details are in the cross section these days. Urban rent I inflation and low long term rates are pulling the aggregate number up, mostly because of high end urban properties that aren't as effected by credit regulations. So you've got the high end in San Feancisco back at 30x while the low end in cities across the interior are at 6x.

      Normalized supply issues and credit regs would lead to higher interest rates, high end PR more like 15-20x and low end PR more like 8-10x. The net effect would be lower aggregate PR. But the path from here to there is different for different market segments.

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