Saturday, January 5, 2019

Another view of the Eurodollar market

Here's another way to look at the yield curve.  Here are Eurodollar futures contracts, which I have tracked over time with fixed maturities.  This gives an indication of the recent relative moves in the yield curve.

I suspect that in the 2020ish contracts, there will be a good position to take for a move down to nearly zero.  But, my hunch is that this recent move will be reversed somewhat, and either the Fed will do one more hike, or they will keep the short term rate where it is, and eventually they will start moving the Fed Funds rate down, too late, and that will be where the big move happens.

(Caveats about taking investment advice from strangers with blogs, etc. etc.  Rule of thumb: Don't make any investment decisions you would blame me for if they went bad.)

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