Thursday, September 13, 2018

August 2018 CPI

CPI of all items less food, energy, and shelter for the previous 6 months (annualized) is about 0.6%.  I suspect that the year-over-year measure will fall back to below 1% over the next 6 months, but rent inflation will keep core CPI near the 2% target.

This increases my confidence that the remaining rate hikes in 2018 will be contractionary.  Forward rate markets seem little affected, though.

4 comments:

  1. This post is more valuable yeoman work from Kevin Erdman.

    It is a sad confirmation that US macroeconomists continue to bark up the wrong trees.

    Shelter! Housing!

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    Replies
    1. Show this to a random person, though, and I bet the response will be, "Well, sure, you can always make inflation higher or lower by selectively removing components."

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