Thursday, September 13, 2018

August 2018 CPI

CPI of all items less food, energy, and shelter for the previous 6 months (annualized) is about 0.6%.  I suspect that the year-over-year measure will fall back to below 1% over the next 6 months, but rent inflation will keep core CPI near the 2% target.

This increases my confidence that the remaining rate hikes in 2018 will be contractionary.  Forward rate markets seem little affected, though.


  1. This post is more valuable yeoman work from Kevin Erdman.

    It is a sad confirmation that US macroeconomists continue to bark up the wrong trees.

    Shelter! Housing!

    1. Show this to a random person, though, and I bet the response will be, "Well, sure, you can always make inflation higher or lower by selectively removing components."