Friday, May 4, 2018

April 2018 Employment Flows

Employment flows sure don't show any signs of weakness, either in gross or net terms.  Healthy flows from not-in-labor-force to employed, from unemployed to employed, etc.  Everything looks good.

No signs here of imminent contraction.

I have been prematurely looking for contraction from an overly hawkish Fed, but there certainly isn't much in labor markets to confirm that position.

Of course, labor markets tend to be lagging or coincident indicators, while equities and the yield curve tend to be more leading indicators.  But, things are looking good here.



    Every once in a while, a reporter gets it right.

    This guy even has some great tables on the percent of land in a city zoned for single-family detached.

    $820k for a house in Seattle!

    The Fed is jibber-jabbering about "shortages" of labor…but has been mute on shortages of housing….

  2. The Fed cites a "persistent shortage of labor" for limited West Coast housing starts.

    I wish I was making this up.

    1. At this point, given that construction workers have all left, they're probably not wrong.

    2. Well, you do make a point.

      If housing in Seattle, SF, LA, OC is unaffordable to the much of the employee-class, and they leave, then you can blame "labor shortages" for rising wages and prices….

      And the solution is to suffocate the economy, to bring prices back under control….

      Which is not far off from what we are seeing….


    "Restrictive zoning contributes about 40% to the price of houses in Sydney and Melbourne, according to new research from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The study looked at zoning restrictions, such as minimum lot sizes and maximum building heights, which affect what kind of housing can be built, and where.

    Of course, zoning and planning rules play an important role in managing the growth of cities and protecting the character of particular neighbourhoods. But as Australia confronts a housing affordability crisis, the question is whether the costs of our planning rules outweigh the benefits.

    Zoning restrictions added A$489,000 to the price of a detached house in Sydney in 2016, according to the research by RBA economists Ross Kendall and Peter Tulip. The figure was A$324,000 in Melbourne, A$159,000 in Brisbane, and A$206,000 in Perth."

    --so the RBA gets it.

    The Fed?