Odds & Ends

1: Amid all the bad news, the Atlanta Fed GDP forecast has become surprisingly bullish:

On Feb. 12, the #GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in Q12016 is 2.7% https://t.co/PkWNFJQxO0 pic.twitter.com/DUWSOb5Yg0

— Atlanta Fed (@AtlantaFed) February 12, 2016

Source

2: The Michigan Inflation Survey is falling to new lows.  In the year 2045, this graph will be referenced in a cutting edge article by the yet-to-be-named new Fed chair, explaining that, in hindsight, the Fed had erred by being to hawkish during and after the Great Recession.  I hope this is not an early signal of falling rents, which would be very bearish considering the severe lack of housing supply.



3: Mortgage debt remains flat.  I have bitten on a couple of false starts regarding housing recovery.  But, at this point, I am resigned.  I'm mostly on the sidelines until this madness sorts itself out.  In a sane world, the homebuilders would be leading a sit-in at the steps of the U.S. Congress and at least one candidate would make housing expansion - including mortgage expansion - a centerpiece of their platform.


4: Here is an interesting graph that ties in to my recent post on the age-related effects of the boom and bust.  Here, we can see how the 65+ group, which is very heavy in equity and is less vulnerable to labor markets, has sailed through the period as if nothing happened.  Meanwhile, the under-45 groups experienced newfound access to mortgage credit markets until the crisis, and have been especially stressed since then because they tend to have higher leverage.

Cheap debt: The avg 65-year-old borrower has 47% more mortgage debt than a 65 y/o in 2003 https://t.co/WJfmcJLNfy pic.twitter.com/y8euqq5swZ

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 12, 2016