Friday, February 12, 2016

Odds & Ends

1: Amid all the bad news, the Atlanta Fed GDP forecast has become surprisingly bullish:

2: The Michigan Inflation Survey is falling to new lows.  In the year 2045, this graph will be referenced in a cutting edge article by the yet-to-be-named new Fed chair, explaining that, in hindsight, the Fed had erred by being to hawkish during and after the Great Recession.  I hope this is not an early signal of falling rents, which would be very bearish considering the severe lack of housing supply.

3: Mortgage debt remains flat.  I have bitten on a couple of false starts regarding housing recovery.  But, at this point, I am resigned.  I'm mostly on the sidelines until this madness sorts itself out.  In a sane world, the homebuilders would be leading a sit-in at the steps of the U.S. Congress and at least one candidate would make housing expansion - including mortgage expansion - a centerpiece of their platform.

4: Here is an interesting graph that ties in to my recent post on the age-related effects of the boom and bust.  Here, we can see how the 65+ group, which is very heavy in equity and is less vulnerable to labor markets, has sailed through the period as if nothing happened.  Meanwhile, the under-45 groups experienced newfound access to mortgage credit markets until the crisis, and have been especially stressed since then because they tend to have higher leverage.


  1. Why housing is not an.issue is curious....sheesh, none of the candidates even seem to talk about generating lots of jobs.
    No wonder Trump is winning...

  2. Maybe all the candidates now accept the idea of monetary offset? So they understand that Presidents can't create jobs? [I'm being facetious of course} : )