Friday, May 8, 2020

April 2020 Yield Curve Update

The Eurodollar charts are updated through today.  The Treasuries chart is monthly.

The Treasuries chart suggests that the yield curve is functionally inverted.  (The 10 year yield needs to get above the trendline.) Forward 5 year inflation expectations are below 1%.  There is a lot of focus on the targeted lending facilities, etc., but, as in 2008, the Fed could really just do more standard stimulus.  Just buy a bunch of Treasuries.  If the cash just ends up in excess reserves with no increase in forward nominal spending and inflation expectations, then buy more.

The Eurodollar curves provide a little more optimism.  It is good that in recent days, the long end of the curve has held up and lower rates are mostly from declining rates at the short end.  The Fed could do more, but it could have done less, too.

The last chart, which is the market estimate of the first rise in Eurodollar rates, suggests also that the Fed has stimulated somewhat, but could do more.  Before the coronavirus outbreak, I was worried that the Fed was just keeping monetary policy below neutral, so that the expected first date of an eventual rate increase was slowly moving back in time, similar to what had happened after 2008 each time they suspended Quantitative Easing operations.  I was looking for the expected first date of a rate increase to move back to December 2021, which would have been bearish.

I thought that the pandemic might trigger a response from the Fed that was less complacent, and actually shorten the length of a coming contraction, even if the contraction was deeper.  At first, this seemed to be the case, with the expected first date of a rate hike moving briefly all the way up to September 2020.  Since then, it has moved back to September 2021.

At this point, a lot depends on near term real shocks related to the pandemic.  But, higher inflation expectations would help, on the margin, I think.





Disclosure: I do not have a position in UBT any more.

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    1. Thanks for the input. I try to shy away from these sorts of narrative approaches. It's really hard to account for everything if you try to think it through in that way. That being said, money might be going into short term fixed income securities and deposits, driving down short term interest rates, but my rule of thumb is to attribute equity values to future income expectations. To the extent that monetary policy is boosting stock prices, I think it is due to being a stabilizing factor that is preventing us from having an unnecessary deflationary shock on top of everything else, so that the recovery can happen more smoothly. I don't think people looking to hold on to a few thousand bucks for a few months are keen on buying equities that are fluctuating by 10% every week or month.

      It's hard to falsify these things, so debates will continue, but I think a lot of bad analysis floods the airwaves based on the notion that equity values are unmoored from the fundamentals and rise and fall with monetary stimulation.

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  29. Two years ago I was deep in debt; I had $90,000 in debt, including $30,420 in credit card debt. My credit score was very poor, in the low 500s. I was advised to file bankruptcy (7) which I did. Most of my debts were removed in bankruptcy; I was left with $7,000 car loan and $41,000 in student loans. Determined not to make the same mistake again, I made on-time monthly payments for both of these loans. In 18 months my score has risen to 600s. After my marriage I requested for a home loan only to be turned down severally because of the negatives still lurking on my report + I needed a score of at least 700. A realtor introduced me to (760Plus Credit Score) a credit specialist who had been helping her client. They raised my score to 780s in less than 11days. Thanks to Debra and 760Plus I’ve got my pre-approval letter and I’m ready to go home shopping. I recommend 760Plus for any one in need of credit fix, you can reach them via 760pluscreditscore at gmail dot com, and you can thank me later.

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  30. I just want to show my appreciation to TROVIAN CREDIT REPAIR as promised for helping me fix my credit report. I had an eviction, judgment and quite a number of other negative items on my report with a low 546 credit score. (Mortgage trade lines, Installment trade lines, Revolving credit cards and Auto trade lines) on my report, to my greatest surprise after confiding with TROVIAN all the negative report on my profile were wiped off and my score raised to 809. Now I got the mortgage and I’m very happy. You can contact them on EMAIL: TROVIANCREDITREPAIR@GMAIL.COM cell: +1 (424) 307 4562 for similar problems.

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  32. Thank God for directing me to TROVIAN CREDIT REPAIR for credit repair. I discovered I had few negative entries on my report mostly IRS, late payment, loans and hospital bills. My business was tired down due to the negatives on my report; I could not get any loan so I started looking for solutions, I discovered this specialist on reddit, through there was others their but my spirit directed me to TROVIAN. After much discussion I gave them a benefit of doubt and made some commitment. My score was raised from 509 to an excellent 799plus and all the negative was cleared from my report. Right now I have a brand new credit profile with good trade lines. I am strongly recommending their service to anyone in need of fixing his/her credit you can contact them via ; TROVIANCREDITREPAIR@GMAIL.COM /+ 1 (424) 307 4562

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  37. Working with CLEVER CREDIT FIX is an excited moment, there service is top notch, after I got recommended to them through my veteran uncle who has experienced there service some months ago, having an encounter with them was a turning point of my credit, my Equifax raised from 513 to 790 Transunion from 485 to 760 Experian from 580 to 802 they also removed all the negative items on my credit report and added a good tradeline on my credit with the interval of 2 to 3 weeks. Successfully acquired a comfortable home for me and my mum. Big appreciation to CLEVER CREDIT FIX. You can reach out to them on CLEVECREDITFIX@GMAIL.COM

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