tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post8794771847295996532..comments2024-03-28T01:12:29.954-07:00Comments on Idiosyncratic Whisk: Housing: Part 257 - Practically everyone predicted a housing bust.Kevin Erdmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-6839530725623105322017-10-26T01:40:54.359-07:002017-10-26T01:40:54.359-07:00- There was one guy who predicted already in the v...- There was one guy who predicted already in the very late 1990s that housing would started to fall in 2003. That was one Harry S. Dent. His prediction was two years too early because it happened in 2005.<br />- Dent also predicted the crisis in 2008-2009 in the earlt 1990s.<br />- these two predictions were based on demosgraphic patterns he discovered in the 1980s.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-59183381043076807182017-09-13T23:21:34.212-07:002017-09-13T23:21:34.212-07:00https://www.cnbc.com/2014/03/06/why-china-needs-a-...https://www.cnbc.com/2014/03/06/why-china-needs-a-national-property-tax.html<br /><br />It amazing how many millions of people there are in the United States, and how limited discourse is. <br /><br />A while back you mused, "Why is Kevin Erdmann the only guy pointing this out?"<br /><br />After a google, I see that a national property tax in the U.S…..is never a topic. Maybe for China, and that fleetingly.<br /><br />A national property tax ranks up there with decriminalizing push-cart, motorcycle sidecar and truck vending. Simply not discussed. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-35175329047700075522017-09-13T21:51:32.017-07:002017-09-13T21:51:32.017-07:00Yes. I think property taxes are a good tax, though...Yes. I think property taxes are a good tax, though without adjustments, they are somewhat regressive in practice. One advantage is that it mathematically makes the government a part owner of the property. Home ownership requires a lot of involvement of the finance sector, and there are deep seated prejudices that it seems people will always have about finance. In a financial crisis, with higher property taxes, tax liabilities would end up being what pulls many households under water, so they would owe debts to the government instead of to a bank. This is probably worse for the individual households, but the public won't go bonkers about it like they do when there are a lot of bad debts to the finance sector. Maybe we wouldn't end up with as many poor policy outcomes when crises occur.<br /><br />Great question on inflation. I don't know what the effect is. Interesting.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-53143438412532085502017-09-13T19:57:37.530-07:002017-09-13T19:57:37.530-07:00Great post.
A couple off-the-wall ideas from me:
...Great post.<br /><br />A couple off-the-wall ideas from me:<br /><br />1. Is a national property tax a bad idea? Obviously, the income tax is rife with problems, not least determining what is income, then can income be hidden (offshore bank accounts), and why tax productive behavior anyway? <br /><br />Oddly enough, we hear about border adjustment taxes, VAT taxes, and we endure heavy payroll taxes (which are taxes on working and hiring. Oh, that makes sense). <br /><br />Unless I have missed it, a national property tax is never discussed. At first blush, seems like a good idea.<br /><br />2. This one nearly gives me a headache: Hedonics and housing costs. As you probably know, the BLS went to hedonic pricing sometime back, including on housing. <br />As applied, does this result in lower inflation (as measured) in housing? <br /><br /><br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com