tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post6734240359561256169..comments2024-03-29T04:50:03.060-07:00Comments on Idiosyncratic Whisk: Wage pressure is not inflationary.Kevin Erdmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-38252318565666320522021-01-07T13:31:02.993-07:002021-01-07T13:31:02.993-07:00I am Leah Hart I live in Ohio USA I’m 32 Years old...I am Leah Hart I live in Ohio USA I’m 32 Years old, am so happy I got my blank ATM card from united hacking company blank ATM card that can withdraw $5,500 daily. I got it from him last week and now I have withdrawn about $15,000 for free. The blank ATM withdraws money from any ATM machines and there is no name on it because it is blank just your PIN will be on it, it is not traceable and now I have money for business, shopping and enough money for me and my family to live on.I am really glad and happy i met united hacking company because I met Five persons before him and they could not help me. But am happy now united hacking company sent the card through DHL and I got it in two days. Get your own card from him right now, he is giving it out for small fee to help people even if it is illegal but it helps a lot and no one ever gets caught or traced. I’m happy and grateful to the united hacking company because he changed my story all of a sudden. The card works in all countries that is the good news contact. email address: unitedblankatmhackcard@gmail.com or whatsApp: +1 (208) 425-7799Leah Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14989559852276020488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-77781870038811164072018-05-04T03:19:22.170-07:002018-05-04T03:19:22.170-07:00"squeezed margins"
actually corporate p..."squeezed margins"<br /><br />actually corporate profits are at zeniths, record zeniths, both absolutely and a safe of GDP. Way higher than the Reagan days…..<br /><br />this is good news…but depressing to see all the ranting about wages….Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-11558104297691282562018-05-04T03:17:33.898-07:002018-05-04T03:17:33.898-07:00Here's a grim chuckle. If the Fed plays it rig...Here's a grim chuckle. If the Fed plays it right, it can cause not just a US, but perhaps global recession…again….<br /><br />"Asia fears another 'taper tantrum' as US rates climb<br />Nikkei Asian Review-5 hours ago<br />BANGKOK -- Rising U.S. interest rates threaten to spark upheaval in Southeast Asian financial markets if investors pull out of the fast-growing region, cutting off fuel to a critical engine of global economic development. On April 24, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasurys hit 3% for the first time since the beginning of 2014. If the U.S. …"<br /><br />--30--Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-47748240049201954882018-05-03T21:12:09.492-07:002018-05-03T21:12:09.492-07:00Interesting.
I keep seeing references to corporat...Interesting.<br /><br />I keep seeing references to corporate reports of rising wages or squeezed margins, as if that is a sign, in and of itself, of inflation. But, it seems to me that in an economy approaching full utilization, there will naturally be a shift among sectors in both price and quantity. Sectors will rise or fall in either respect, but at the end of the day, the net effect of all of that is a product of Fed policy. Rising wages of, say, restaurant wait staff, can be a predictable result of a mature recovery without saying anything about aggregate inflation.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-75196804152989163032018-05-03T20:12:25.983-07:002018-05-03T20:12:25.983-07:00https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ULCNFBhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ULCNFBBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-67921378765715618572018-05-03T20:12:07.277-07:002018-05-03T20:12:07.277-07:00"Wage pressure is not inflationary"--KE...."Wage pressure is not inflationary"--KE.<br /><br />Amen.<br /><br />Even more:<br /><br />Q1 unit labor costs up 1.1% YOY. <br /><br />https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/prod2_05032018.htm<br /><br /><br />The media played the Q1 BLS press release as a "surge in wages." This is our "left-wing" media? Egads. <br /><br />The Q1 standalone showed some wage boost, compared to Q4. But lone quarterly figures are often revised, or revesered in the following quarter.<br /><br />In fact unit labor costs are up about 1% )total!) from Q2 of 2016. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-47138446264162833162018-05-03T05:49:01.512-07:002018-05-03T05:49:01.512-07:00http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/05/q1-2018-...http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/05/q1-2018-gdp-details-on-residential-and.html<br /><br />housing investment still very soft Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-33863587284566627212018-04-30T06:14:09.387-07:002018-04-30T06:14:09.387-07:00Isn't the mechanism simply the "wealth ef...Isn't the mechanism simply the "wealth effect" transmission mechanism. Strikes me that financial assets respond first to CB easing...and only after some unknown period of time do we find out how much of that is actually "wealth."<br /><br />This is a silly example but I think it holds: if we print $1t and give it to Bill Gates and he buries it in his backyard it shows up as "wealth". And he gains the influence commensurate with an extra $1t in wealth. If he then decides to buy oil with it 10 years from now, the "wealth" quickly becomes "inflation" (partially). The world was essentially fooled.<br /><br />We have no idea what the true level of interest rates is nor the true earnings power of corporates until policy is "normalized." In the interim, both can appear to be valued much more highly than they should be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-51509862706526704152018-04-29T13:51:36.378-07:002018-04-29T13:51:36.378-07:00I miss the late 90's. I remember TIPS yieldin...I miss the late 90's. I remember TIPS yielding 3.4% plus inflation. billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-65359282515989467212018-04-28T07:22:54.391-07:002018-04-28T07:22:54.391-07:00Why do you think CB easing creates wealth? Unexpe...Why do you think CB easing creates wealth? Unexpected inflation is a transfer from creditors to debtors.<br /><br />Even in the Austrian type of misallocation story, lagging inflation would have to mean that years after loose CB policy, debtor firms have unexpected nominal gains, which would then trigger investment, which eventually provides poor returns. So, there would be malinvestment in, like 2020 or 2021, which would go bad when the CB finally had to tighten in 2023 or something?<br /><br />Is there a mechanism you are expecting that I'm missing?Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-28238072726185821092018-04-28T05:45:10.441-07:002018-04-28T05:45:10.441-07:00Well i do think inflation is a legitimate worry, b...Well i do think inflation is a legitimate worry, but more so in a political sense than an economic sense. Let's say there is a longer lag between CB easing and inflation than we believe. In the interim that easing creates "wealth," that "wealth" gains power/influence. If the time were to come when a wealth-destructing CB tightening were necessary to contain inflation it may not be politically possible due to the aforementioned influence. A central bank could easily paint itself into a corner. This is a risk that central banks should be aware of.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-15275246425325020812018-04-27T21:45:20.229-07:002018-04-27T21:45:20.229-07:00True. That's the perpetual challenge. Bad poli...True. That's the perpetual challenge. Bad policy begets bad policy.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-86803446050579224262018-04-27T17:00:24.345-07:002018-04-27T17:00:24.345-07:00Excellent blogging.
By the way, if we worship wi...Excellent blogging.<br /><br /> By the way, if we worship wish for voters and the employee population to embrace free enterprise, it would behoove us to make sure real wages grow nicely over time. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-57726780423297029162018-04-27T16:46:27.018-07:002018-04-27T16:46:27.018-07:00Good point. The comment wasn't necessarily ad...Good point. The comment wasn't necessarily addressed solely to the FOMC, but to the general commentariate and finance folks who are afraid of bubbles and inflation.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-657629523674425422018-04-27T14:15:53.034-07:002018-04-27T14:15:53.034-07:00Why would you conclude that the Fed is raising rat...Why would you conclude that the Fed is raising rates to "stop the business cycle?" Inflation is basically at-target and the Fed's own future inflation gauge shows it rising to considerably over-target by year end. Raising rates seems in-line with the goals of monetary policy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com