tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post5753678112451425278..comments2024-03-29T04:50:03.060-07:00Comments on Idiosyncratic Whisk: December 2014 JOLTSKevin Erdmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-72220795158544045812015-02-12T08:44:37.884-07:002015-02-12T08:44:37.884-07:00Great point. I'm not sure how this would effe...Great point. I'm not sure how this would effect the rates that are in my post, but that would feed into Benjamin's points about total employment. That's another reason that we have seen a stagnation in total hours worked.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-17152430568029946762015-02-12T07:37:25.143-07:002015-02-12T07:37:25.143-07:00Kevin-
How are you adjusting for net immigration? ...Kevin-<br />How are you adjusting for net immigration? Immigration is well off its late 90s/early 2000s peak- in raw terms peak to trough was around 400,000 fewer immigrants and in % of US population it is even starker. If we include the infamous "jobless recovery" and 2001 recession we are talking 3-5 million immigrants (maybe more) that you would have expected- heavily skewed toward prime working age. Baconbaconhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13511082564082971086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-33243656731019446692015-02-11T20:48:30.792-07:002015-02-11T20:48:30.792-07:00I have a different take. First, working age popul...I have a different take. First, working age population has not been growing. It's not just labor force. And even within that group, there is some aging that would pull expected participation down. I agree that labor markets have been tough since 08, but age adjusted labor force participation was very strong in 06-07.<br />I think wages have been very high since 08, given the level of unemployment. They look and feel low because inflation has been low and what inflation we have had has been from supply side issues in housing, plus the typical problems in healthcare, etc. I don't think there is much room for relative growth in compensation. We just have screwed up housing, healthcare, and education policies that eat up all of our productivity.<br /><br />But that's why I like your input. You have a different take on some of this.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-72647818301393332282015-02-11T18:37:14.099-07:002015-02-11T18:37:14.099-07:00You know, if wages were higher (or taxes on wages ...You know, if wages were higher (or taxes on wages lower) that would increase the supply of labor....wages have been dead...<br /><br />A robust labor market (which we have not had since 1999---see hours worked) would hike wages, and increase the supply of labor...<br /><br />Possibly you have the demographics explanation backward. Marginal workers see no reason to become productive, given the weak labor market, and the cruddy way they are treated...in a robust labor market, they see higher wages and employers who become solicitous....<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-79504450376395306032015-02-11T16:46:19.071-07:002015-02-11T16:46:19.071-07:00I'm with you Ben. But, I do think demographic...I'm with you Ben. But, I do think demographics explains a lot of this. The limited growth in the labor force has been mostly outside prime working age.<br /><br />http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/02/prime-working-age-population-growing.htmlKevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-57356913829238550892015-02-11T06:24:38.629-07:002015-02-11T06:24:38.629-07:00Happy for more houses (in the right places too, wh...Happy for more houses (in the right places too, where people want to live).<br /><br />That said, the number of hours worked in the private-sector are now the same as 2009...and 1999.<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOANBS<br /><br />I did a post at Historinhas (Marcus Nunes) <br /><br />Yes, of late the labor market is getting better...but we will need years and years of getting better more...<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-28125768344709644312015-02-10T23:34:08.717-07:002015-02-10T23:34:08.717-07:00Thanks Kevin, that makes sense. So the lack of cr...Thanks Kevin, that makes sense. So the lack of credit inhibits building, which drives up rents, which looks like inflation, now I'm following.<br />Kenneth Dudahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10593455504357461005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-30090571377214007922015-02-10T20:54:18.991-07:002015-02-10T20:54:18.991-07:00If you can't follow, I probably need to write ...If you can't follow, I probably need to write more clearly. :-)<br /><br />The reason I call it a supply shock is because I am treating the housing market as a single market. There isn't an additional renter. There is just a household that is renting from someone else instead of from themselves. The total supply of homes is smaller because, on the margin, some of those households would be building new homes.<br /><br />It is possible for landlords to build homes, but owner-occupiers are 65% of the market, and they are more like 80% or more of single family homes, so for landlords to make up for the lack of owner-occupier supply, they would need to build units at a rate several times higher than any historical rate, which is probably an impossible gap to make up. Commercial and multi-unit building is stronger than single family owner-occupier building, but not nearly enough to make up the gap.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-16148397988812265502015-02-10T18:08:48.768-07:002015-02-10T18:08:48.768-07:00> If lending doesn't loosen up, inflation w...> If lending doesn't loosen up, inflation will come from <br />> a supply shock in housing<br /><br />Sorry Kevin, I am confused. Wouldn't a frozen credit situation make it harder to buy a home, which lowers home values somewhat but might increase demand for rentals? In what way would that situation be a "supply shock"?<br /><br />I know, only barely following as usual...<br /><br /> -Ken<br /><br /><br /><br />Kenneth Dudahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10593455504357461005noreply@blogger.com