tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post2368191621165005323..comments2024-03-29T04:50:03.060-07:00Comments on Idiosyncratic Whisk: Housing: Part 185 - the phases of the bustKevin Erdmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-85674242955026993612016-11-07T23:13:53.386-07:002016-11-07T23:13:53.386-07:00Good comments Ben.
Interesting article, bill. Th...Good comments Ben.<br /><br />Interesting article, bill. Thanks.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-91740640284007703382016-11-07T21:14:16.139-07:002016-11-07T21:14:16.139-07:00Ben and Kevin,
I think you'll "like"...Ben and Kevin,<br />I think you'll "like" this article. Like, in this case, means find it very irritating.<br />http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/11/05/society-hill-closed/<br /><br />billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-33461830524360072342016-11-07T20:26:39.274-07:002016-11-07T20:26:39.274-07:00I think that is Lord Adair's conclusion too. H...I think that is Lord Adair's conclusion too. He is fan of money-financed fiscal programs, aka helicopter drops. <br /><br />I sense he leans to solutions on real estate I might not like, such as "macorprudential" regulations, which might be some sort of tax or disincentive on property lending, or even mere heavy-handed regulations. <br /><br />It is interesting how much zoning keeps stikcingitsnose into the situation. You have written that without zoning, there would have been more housing production on the West Coast, yet likely the property would be worth less in aggregate. <br /><br />Five units are worth $1 million each, but 10 units are worth $400k each. <br /><br />My own view that without zoning there would be a forest of middle-class condos along the SoCal waterfront, surely many luxury units, and the middle lower class would live inland by a few miles. There would be no Inland Empire. <br /><br />There would be no real estate bubbles, and no busts, and monetary policy could encourage growth. <br /><br />In many ways I wish I had never started reading Idiosyncratic Whisk. Once one starts thinking about property, property lending (now the bulk of bank landing) and zoning…it ties into monetary policy and global malaise. <br /><br />I am taking up gardening. <br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-25449572971828280792016-11-07T11:14:58.978-07:002016-11-07T11:14:58.978-07:00I have come to the conclusion that focusing on len...I have come to the conclusion that focusing on lending is problematic. I think there is a natural tendency for an inflation targeting central bank to apply monetary offset to lending growth, just as they would to fiscal spending. And, in both cases, I'm not so sure that monetary offset doesn't frequently overshoot, especially when the topic is salient. That may be one reason why deep recessions tend to follow real estate "bubbles". It certainly seems to have been the case this time.<br /><br />If that is the case, it's funny how empirically this would lead people to the disastrously wrong conclusion - that what we need is even tighter monetary and credit policy.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-17549954137676966552016-11-06T20:09:10.222-07:002016-11-06T20:09:10.222-07:00https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVQdeb0EdWA
the a...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVQdeb0EdWA<br /><br />the above is a youtube of Lord Adair, who despite his name is a great economist and thinker.<br /><br />He makes some interesting points that may dovetail with your thinking. Regrettably the topic of property zoning and scarcity (which encourages bank-lending on property) is not addressed. Indirectly, perhaps. <br /><br />I think he is onto something, with his observation that bank lending has largely become real-estate lending, and most of that is on existing properties. Appreciation validates more lending, and scarcity validates price. <br /><br />I think his point of view is this process leads to bust. He points out many recent recessions started out as real estate depreciations.<br /><br />But of course, he ignores Canada and Australia which have not had property depreciations. <br /><br />Still, a thought-provoking presentation. <br /><br /> Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-25537629497211943952016-11-03T17:54:22.260-07:002016-11-03T17:54:22.260-07:00Kevin E---they say knowledge is power...but someti...Kevin E---they say knowledge is power...but sometimes knowledge is just really irritatingBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-55179044152510891942016-11-03T09:11:55.143-07:002016-11-03T09:11:55.143-07:00And everybody's pissed off. But who are they ...And everybody's pissed off. But who are they pissed off at? The Fed for being loose, even though it was too tight. The banks for making loans to poor people, even though they made loans to high income people. The GSEs for feeding the housing frenzy, even though the GSEs were countercyclical.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-70659902652778019802016-11-03T06:13:59.189-07:002016-11-03T06:13:59.189-07:00And, today, compared to 1995, ownership rates are ...And, today, compared to 1995, ownership rates are lower for the low income groups and higher for the high income groups.--Kevin E.<br /><br />Egads. <br /><br />I am a free-market kind of guy, ran my own business for decades. <br /><br />And yet, over and over again, I see the results of policies that appear to favor the upper-class. Such policies just become buried, non-issues.<br /><br />You can see editorials against rent control---but without mention of property zoning, and the artificially constrained supply, embraced by property owners. Oh, that?<br /><br />The minimum wage is good for a thumping every day or the week. Property zoning rarely, if ever. And only lulus talk about regulations against push-cart and truck-vending, or the zoning of retail space. <br /><br />Yes, the globalists want open borders for the US, and lots of immigrants---but not open property markets. Lots of demand for housing, but limited supply. <br /><br />The home mortgage interest tax deduction--who does that favor? <br /><br />I do not think there is a conspiracy.It just yes like this: Policies that hurt upper-inome people are eventually corrected or evaded (think offshore tax havens). <br /><br />Policies that benefit upper-income people become non-issues. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com